Still, I doubt Elon's party will have some success in the long term. Political duopoly being kept by both the Democrat and Republican party is strong and it would take much to convince people to give their trust to Musk as a reliable politician.
It's too early to say Elon's party will fail if we know what his real goals are. It's no coincidence that Republicans have expressed concern about Elon's new party, while Democrats seem to care little. And it's no coincidence that Elon took aim at the lawmakers who voted against Trump's spending bill.
Elon's goal is for his party to run for congressional seats in the 2026 midterm elections and win some seats. That's his goal, because once the American party wins some seats in Congress, Elon may have the opportunity to block, veto bills that he believes will harm the US economy like Trump's OBBBA bill.
Winning a few seats in Congress is not an impossible task.