This tool has been guiding me a lot for the past months
For the current month, the tools allows us to sell 5 months in advance this month.
Should this be considered too conservative? What do you guys think about selling more?
Of course the presumption that I had was not to buy back, but to potentially be able to live off the extra money that is being generated from the bitcoin being sold, so yeah, there is not any desire to overly sell, but if you were living off your BTC in a sustainable withdrawal style and then sell five months in advance out of expectations that the BTC price would drop to lower levels, then yeah you would be able to live off that 5 months of withdrawal without having to sell more BTC.
I know that it is strange to be suggesting how money is used, but I was thinking that the tool might need to be revised to account for the dollar value of the withdrawals rather than withdrawing based on the BTC quantity...
So, for example if a person is considers his entry-level fuck you status to be $80k per year and that would be $6,666 per month, so then if he were be considering that he could employ a 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA value, then at today's 200-WMA values of $49,681, he needs to have a $800k bitcoin portfolio size based on the 200-WMA, which would signify that today his threshold level of bitcoin would have to be
16.103 BTC to get him to his 200-WMA having a $800k value. Meaning that he would have to have at least that amount for that withdrawal rate, and surely I have recently been recommending to always be withdrawing from the overaccumulated amount, so if he has more that 16.103 then he would not want his quantity of BTC, at least as of today (July 11, 2025) to drop below 16.103 BTC.
Currently the tool is showing a monthly withdrawal allowance of 0.13419167 BTC (or $15,550), which truly is $8,884 higher than $6,666 allowance, which should have had given him a monthly withdrawal rate of 0.057689312 BTC ($6,666 / $115,880).
In order to get the withdrawal rate down to $6,666 per month, then the withdrawal rate would need to be adjusted down to something like 4.5%, even though if it is actually drawing from the 200-WMA valuation then it would be a 10% withdrawal rate based on a 200-WMA valuation.
I use the tool on a daily basis too, and it is very powerful to be able to calculate these matters, but I had noticed that it's valuation based on the spot price rather than the 200-WMA is different from my ways of explaining it, so it surely could contribute to guys overly withdrawing.