I am going to go on a limb and say that Real Madrid will not win UCL this season as well. They are not going ot be as bad as last year, because they had many injuries last year which caused them to be worse, they will do better at group stages at least, and depending on who they face afterwards, I bet they can go even further, but they won't win.
The new system doesn’t use “group stages” the first stage is more like a league phase where they all compete each other to move to the next stage of go directly to R16 I think.
About Realmadrid, deciding who to win or not is still very early although, it still depends on the teams they face just as you’ve said but I’m very sure the new system is here to get rid having too much luck regarding opponents ( even though UCL is most likely for better teams accross different leagues). For now, the odds seem to be leaning towards Liverpool and co but with PSG consistence performance there could be a better odds for them..