Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
End stage bitcoin bull market Q3 2025
In the chart above, the Triangle Oscillator is nearing a top. If past is prologue, the bull market's end is approaching.
As the first chart's horizontal labeling should make clear, this algorithm indexes the price by block height, not by conventional calendar time. The chart below re-indexes by date (while rescaling the oscillator vertically to make the chart more readable).
The extrapolation (red) suggests that the present boom, such as it is, will lose impetus around the end of August. One could reasonably expect a subsequent decline in bitcoin's exchange rate. It's also possible, as a result of declining volatility, that the halvings' influence on price is now so inconsequential that bitcoin's future cyclic declines won't even cancel the natural long term monotonic growth of bitcoin's price, in which case we might simply see many months of choppy sideways price action instead of real bear markets.
Nothing's for sure, as you can tell from looking at 2021. The turn signal came at the first top, then exceeded by a subsequent top, though not by much. Looking back, the way bitcoin's price action rocketed upward in Q4 2020 hinted at something unusual in the offing. This price action, as reflected in the oscillator, wasn't in keeping with expected cyclic behavior (see previous posts for why the oscillator is expected to show a triangle wave in response to regular cyclic price action). This next chart compares the vagaries of bitcoin's cyclic price action to an ideal triangle wave.
The chart below shows the phase relationship. By the third halving, bitcoin had got well out of phase and responded with some wild swings between block 650000 and 700000. Eventually she settled down. The current cycle has the same phase as Q4 2015, almost like we're back to normal.
In the chart above, the Triangle Oscillator is nearing a top. If past is prologue, the bull market's end is approaching.
As the first chart's horizontal labeling should make clear, this algorithm indexes the price by block height, not by conventional calendar time. The chart below re-indexes by date (while rescaling the oscillator vertically to make the chart more readable).
The extrapolation (red) suggests that the present boom, such as it is, will lose impetus around the end of August. One could reasonably expect a subsequent decline in bitcoin's exchange rate. It's also possible, as a result of declining volatility, that the halvings' influence on price is now so inconsequential that bitcoin's future cyclic declines won't even cancel the natural long term monotonic growth of bitcoin's price, in which case we might simply see many months of choppy sideways price action instead of real bear markets.
Nothing's for sure, as you can tell from looking at 2021. The turn signal came at the first top, then exceeded by a subsequent top, though not by much. Looking back, the way bitcoin's price action rocketed upward in Q4 2020 hinted at something unusual in the offing. This price action, as reflected in the oscillator, wasn't in keeping with expected cyclic behavior (see previous posts for why the oscillator is expected to show a triangle wave in response to regular cyclic price action). This next chart compares the vagaries of bitcoin's cyclic price action to an ideal triangle wave.
The chart below shows the phase relationship. By the third halving, bitcoin had got well out of phase and responded with some wild swings between block 650000 and 700000. Eventually she settled down. The current cycle has the same phase as Q4 2015, almost like we're back to normal.