There's no logic, strategy or whatever we like to call it that can give us guaranteed win in sports bet, every gambler should choose whatever logic that works for them. But the question mark is whether there is such a logic in sports bet or gambling generally, I sincerely don't think so. I don't worry about logics in gambling because at the end of the day you still need luck to win. I have seen experienced analysts fail in their predictions many times so I stopped putting my hopes in gamblers logics. I analyze what I can and bet with small amounts that is my strategy for gambling generally.
Using simple logic to place bets is not a bad idea, because gambling is all about using strategies, experience, history, and other tools to try to determine if one can stand a chance of winning. However, even with all these tools, there is no guarantee that it will result in a win at the end of the day. Gambling is a game of luck, and while it is beneficial to apply logic in gameplay, it is very important never to rely on it, as it will not always provide the desired outcome.
It is expected that gamblers should be creative in their thinking while betting, but one thing to understand is that whatever methods or strategies one may use in predicting bets, it doesn't make winning in gambling certain.