You gave a more bearish and a less bearish scenario, and I want with your less bearish scenario to suggest a bet, and sure maybe every proposition that a guy makes does not have to be bettable, but still you presented the scenario as if it were your base case... and maybe if your not willing to stand behind it, then it is not your base case.

I know that we are not guaranteed to go up or even to touch $1million in less than 7 years, yet the fact of the matter is that none of us hardly know, and we hardly have any clue in terms of the possibility that we could hit $1million in this cycle.. and even if we don't it could happen early in the next cycle... or even if we presume that this cycle ONLY has the rest of this calendar year (at most - as you seemed to also suggest, perhaps in another of your bearish posts), if we add a whole other cycle onto that (to the extent that cycles still exist, which both of us seem to be presuming that cycles still exist), then we have 5 years to finish the remaining of this cycle and then a whole new cycle to be able to touch upon $1 million and perhaps to start to spend some time in the 7 digits, which is still 2 years shorter than your 7 year timeline in which you think that we will be spending in 6 digits.

At this time, I am starting to question the supposed reasonableness of your reason. .. not that your reasoning wasn't in jeopardy at earlier points in time from the point of view of this here cat.

 


No problem.  It is not always clear if or when to edit out responses.


Many of us have been out-sizedly rewarded in regards to our bitcoin, especially if we have been able to error on the side of accumulating and holding.

The value compounds upon itself so many times that the original investment amount pales in comparison with any slivers of fiat that might get drawn out from time to time.

I had come across another post in which there was discussion of 0.001 BTC, which is also 100k satoshis, and right now valued at about $119.16 as I type this post.  For sure those quantities of bitcoin were bordering on being classified as dust in 2015-ish... since it would have had ONLY been $0.25

so yeah, to have $0.25 turn into $119.16 within 10 years is quite amazing, and I am pretty sure that many of us were considering that we were putting in some decent amounts of money, but surely money that we could afford to lose in the event that the whole thing were to go south, but at the same time, we likely considered a variety of upside possibilities that might have also included supra $100k bitcoin, but at the same time, thinking about such price rises and actually experiencing such prices in personal and concrete ways are very different sentiments.


In recent times, I have been referring to that kind of a status as overaccumulation status, since as long as you are selling at a rate that is less than your BTC is appreciating, then you may well not really notice any meaningful change to your stash, yet part of the problem still has to do with any of us figuring out what our threshold level of bitcoin that we might not want to go below, so then any bitcoin that we have over that  level could be referred to as overaccumulated coins.

I might as well stick with the example of a person who wants to withdraw $80k per year (and adjust 7% upwardly each year, so then right now, that person would need to have a minimum of 16.07 BTC, so the extent to which he has more than 16.07 BTC, then he is in a really great place to liberally sell those extra BTC, and so for example if the guy has 23.57 BTC, then he has 7.5 BTC extra, and so maybe he wants to spend 1 BTC, then he still would have 6.5 extra BTC, and maybe he spends his 1 BTC, and then next year, he sees that he only needs 14 BTC in order to withdraw at his same $0k per year range... so his quantity of BTC needed to maintain his target withdrawal level is going down way faster than his spend rate, which is also cushioned by the fact that he had started out in the hypothetical withdrawals with 23.57 BTC which was 7.5 BTC, extra, and perhaps the next year, even though he spent 1 BTC, his 22.57 BTC is now 8.57 BTC greater than his minimal withdrawal amount, so even his overaccumulation status is growing faster than his BTC spends.  

Of course, it is not possible to outline all of the overaccumulation and withdrawal scenarios that might be applicable to any of us, since any of them would need to be tailored, yet I still consider that bitcoin is such a great asset that there are many ways, once we reach overaccumulation status to spend from our overaccumulated amount of BTC at levels that never cause our accumulated amounts to go below our threshold level, and whether our overaccumlation amounts continues to grown or not.  The growth (or shrinkage or maintenance) of our overaccumulated amount is just a side-dynamic that may or may not make too much difference in the whole scheme of things.

We also know that each year, it is quite likely that the amount that any of us needs for our overaccumlated amount is ongoingly going down faster than we are likely spending from it (of course depending on our adequately reaching such status and having some extra space to work with).  For example, on this same exact day 1 year ago, we would have had needed 21.74 BTC in order to be at the same $80k per year withdrawal rate threshold that today is ONLY 16.07 BTC today. .. so a 26% reduction in our required BTC threshold amount, and we likely did not withdraw even close to that level of BTC in order to maintain  our $80k per year withdrawal rate... and we can even cheat and withdraw from our overaccumulated amount, to the extent that we might have had more than the threshold BTC amount.



Even though I have continue to argue with LFC about his intended withdrawal plan, and he had similar ideas in the past, so his past experiences seem to influence his current thinking, and he even modified his plan to have his sale amounts spread out over something like a $25k range, so he seems to have had thought through his plan, including understanding that the BTC price might continue to go up from his various sales, and so ultimately he has to be comfortable with his own choices, even though they seem like a bit much to some of us in regards to the too much too soon arena, but he seems to think otherwise, which might work out well for him, perhaps?


Factually, I am pretty sure he sold around $4,500 per BTC, and then he bought 1 BTC back around $6k.  Yeah, it does not seem a very good outcome, for sure, and he was willing to take his chances in regards to the BTC price dropping further.

So, yeah of course, current spot price for 10 BTC is pretty good, yet even Mindrust's explanation is that he had gotten way overboard in his bitcoin investment, so maybe he did need to trim off some, and cut his portfolio down, yet surely a lot of us have difficulties considering a 90% cutting down on the portfolio size, rather than maybe a 20% to 30% cutting down that would have had still been a lot to bring him down to 7-8 BTC, but yeah, guys gotta do  what they gotta do, and they end up suffer the consequences when they end up messing up.


We need to face it that even 1BTC is quite out of reach for an overwhelming majority of normies.  Yeah, sure there are folks in the USA who earn those higher levels of salaries and they may have even invested into some other investments over the years, but I still think that 1BTC is getting out of range for a lot of normies, even though surely they could aim for something like that.

Maybe more realistic might be that some guys might be able to DCA something like $30k to $50k over the next 6 months, and then perhaps similar levels over the following 6 months, and surely it can be difficult to suggest going overly aggressive during our likely upcoming bull market, which makes your idea of frontloading of the investment to make more sense, for guys who are able to do it, which I suspect might not be too many normies able to frontload invest $120k into bitcoin within a short period of time, even if it might be for their own good to do so.

By the way, $120k invested in 2015 - assuming an average buy price of around $250 would still have had ONLY gotten 480 BTC which still is a large amount to have had been able to accumulate with that amount of fiat.

I may have had mentioned previously that there was a point in late 2014 that I was considering reallocating something like 1/2 of my then 401k into bitcoin, which would have had greatly increased my coin level, but I decided not to do it, and I decided that I largely had enough bitcoin, and by 2015, with merely another 35% added to my then stash, I decided that I had more than enough bitcoin (going from 10% of my investment portfolio in BTC in late 2014 to 13.5% in bitcoin by late 2015).


I tend to move coins around so frequently it can be difficult to point to the same coins being owned from 10 years ago or 11.5 years ago would have had been my first coins, which ended up getting moved around.

There is good and bad in regards to moving around coins, including that we may well change some of the ways that we are holding coins.

I tend to give a bit of a pass to folks keeping a decent amount of coins on exchanges, especially in the first year, even though there are some reasonable easy to learn self-custody solutions, but still I have found some aspects of self custody to be confusing and involved and various ways that we could contribute to our own losing of coins, even though surely self-custody has a lot of powers to it, too.  Powers to the person and also power to the whole bitcoin network.