I think that rather than analyzing a ton of data, focusing on specific events or following teams and not focusing on the bigger picture will help us make better betting decisions.
Another thing I recommend is betting on win-lose-draw, without adding other types of bets that only end up adding difficulty, and are the ones that generally make us lose.
I think that even if you strictly specialize in something, the chance to surpass the bookmaker in the accuracy of the assessment is still minimal. Bookmakers (or rather companies that supply quotes) have an incomparably larger volume of information and teams that process this volume.
As for the preference for betting on simple outcomes, this is correct - the bookmaker's margin is the smallest there. The more exotic the outcome you choose, the higher the margin you pay.