Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 16/07/2025, 00:14:57 UTC
⭐ Merited by Lucius (1)
In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.
Now $119k feels sad. We're getting somewhere Cheesy
I'm convinced this place is a nest of masochists.
Yeah but..

after a while up and down does not hurt very much anymore..

I mean any mostly long time bitcoiners who had largely been long in their cornz position and even half asleep (vapourminer?) has made a killing since late October 2024.. .. and even more of a killing if we go back to November 2022.. . .and even more of killing if we go back to mid 2020.. .. .etc etc.. and even if you think about it, 5 years is not really a long time for an investment, and it is quite great when the investment ends up going up 20x or so in value in a matter of 5-ish years... that is not a long time.
you make a very good point , after going through the ups and downs for a while, it really does start to feel normal  especially when you are in it with a longterm mindset.....Those who have  held through the quiet times and stayed patient are now seeing the rewards, and it is  encouraging for people like me who are still early in the journey..... Five years may seem long at first, but looking back, it is  really not especially with the kind of growth Bitcoin has shown...

You can theorize about the process, yet it seems to me that getting through a whole cycle of bitcoin accumulation will likely help you to have a bit of a track record, and even help you to figure out how well you might have been able to follow your original plan or if you might have had tweaked your plans at various points along the way.

In the last few years I have come to understand that anyone who is persistently accumulating bitcoin at a similar rate for 4 years is likely going to have average BTC prices that are right around the 200-WMA, and surely if your accumulation period is even longer then your average cost per BTC will be further and further below the 200-WMA.. which historically has tended to be a good place to be, especially if you can get your average cost per BTC to be more than 35% below the 200-WMA while still building a decently large BTC stash in the process.

Don't get me wrong, since I am not advocating that it is better to have a low cost of BTC rather than accumulating a decently large bitcoin stash, and as an investment, it can take a bit of time to have both the low cost per BTC and a decently large BTC stash.

hey JJG
woke up from nap, did i miss anything?

I think what has been happening has been exciting, even though in terms of percentage, we are still not experiencing any meaningful face rippings.. but maybe, just maybe what happened could be a sign for where we might be going in the coming 3-6 months.

I hate to get overly confident, even though I have been continuing to have difficulties understanding how so much buying from known actors has not been translating into even more UPpity than what we have been seeing... and surely some UPpity and then some correction back down would not be unreasonable, even though I hate to count upon such things (either psychologically or financially).... so in some sense, I will cope either way..

[edited out]
1. Thanks for updating me at the news front, i don't track US politics that much, even less so since i am working on two projects at office at the time.

2. Yes, indeed, over a whole cycle, in non-top years July/August/September are quite negative (red) in non-top years, which masks their greenishness in cycle-top years.
That said, i ain't sure about September being green overall in those top-years.
I just hit "All" on the timeframe and "monthly" on the chart and inspected the results myself, to my own surprise, wrongly memorizing Summer months as generally bearish.

 I don't tend to get very excited in connection with seasonality proclamations.

Only if you're an ant...  Wink
Yes, I am an ant to buy.
Bluedrem is an ant now, so his BTC is growing.

You are welcome to be an ant too 😊

Cheers!

It seems that we all have to start as ants.. even though surely there are some of us who had investments in other assets become coming to bitcoin which truly helped us to accomplish some frontloading of our investment.  For bitcoin, I like the idea of frontloading, yet surely we have to figure out how to make sure that we are staying within our own means rather than overdoing it.

That was a shocking amount of BTC being dumped at $117,500.  The market seemed to absorb it and is holding up ok, someone sold a massive amount though for sure.  That's the largest volume spike we've seen in months, so that leads me to believe we might be near a new bottom here.  With this week being sure to be full of announcements, I think it might be a bit early to count this rally down for now.  It does seem to be taking a breather though.  We'll see how Europe responds when they wake up in a few hours.

Because turns out the guy who forgot 8 wallets from 2011, 10K BTC in each, just cashed out over $2 billion  Wink
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/05/eight-bitcoin-wallets-move-80000-btc-in-largest-ever-satoshi-era-transfers
https://www.theblock.co/post/361057/two-bitcoin-wallets-move-20000-btc-after-14-years


Did he actually cash out the full $2 billion or some portion of it?  I cannot imagine wanting to put $2 billion in cash, but I could imaging cashing out some portion of it, maybe even $10million to $100 million.. if the guy might have had some specific purchase in mind.