The poly market contains a wide range of options to choose from and this particular one is also included. I don't think I have ever come across this on a bet site, but it's going to be a good option for bettors that don't like going with the basics. But such an option would be hard to predict, winning this would be just by luck. If the transfers are not publicized there's no way you'd figure it out expect you just use intuition
From previous responses here I don’t think polymarket has this kind of bet, and I’m actually very surprised to see that they don’t have it - from the type of bets that are being made there one would think that something like this would be a walk in the park for them but surprisingly they happen to not have it.
I don’t know how the Op plans on making this sort of prediction but it sounds pretty interesting and judging from the difficulty in making predictions I think it will come along with some decent odds and also those with some inside information might be able to make some predictions before the news comes out.