I like my own chart, ideas and rationale behind the ideas better, even though surely there can be a methodology behind any of the systems that might not exactly be understood in the abstract.  Furthermore, my numbers are not really much different from what his seem to be.

By mid 2035, I am anticipating anywhere between 1.5 BTC to 3.6 BTC to be able to enter the threshold of fuck you status (right now, as I type this post I consider 15.987 to be entry-level fuck you status for an income of $80k per year), and surely it can be difficult to know with any kind of confidence, and so surely we would want to error on the side of having more and having a bit of a cushion, even though we also might want to be careful not to overdo our cushion level, since sometimes if we might have reached a status of enough or more than enough then there might need to be a reason why there needs to be a cushion that goes beyond a certain level - including even considering the possibility that doubling the number so that it should be abundantly clear that the cushion is enough.

Projecting into the future is one thing, and then getting to the future point (in this case 10 years down the road) to see if the numbers still pan out or whether they need to be adjusted in one direction or another.


It can be a little bit confusing regarding if talking in today's dollars or future dollars.  Of course, 2035 dollars are likely going to be worth about 30% to 40% of today's dollars, and with my own charts I try to presume that we are talking in today's dollsrs and that bitcoin will appreciate in such a way that it will make up for the ongoing debasement of the dollar.

I also go by how much wealth is needed to be able to passively withdraw from it while maintaining the principle, which means it would be perpetual, yet of course anyone who gets into a life ending kind of a situation (age or health related), then surely he would be at liberty to deplete the principle.


I thought that you had some other income such as pension and social security.

I doubt that it is fair to count home in regards to your potentially quasi-liquid weath even though we know that equity loans can be drawn out against it or it could be sold and then downsized.

It seems that if the bitcoin is allowed to grow rather than drawn from, then 15% now might be enough in 5 years to constitute 60% or more.. .that has bee one of the great things about bitcoin in the past 14-ish years.  It has greatly outperformed other assets and greatly outperformed in its growth as compared with other assets, and I don't see any reason that it will not continue to outperform other assets in regards to its growth in value.

Another thing is that if your withdraw from your liquid assets in proportion of their size, then they would shrink at similar rates but bitcoin would still outperform other assets.

I don't think it is a good idea to have your 401k in bonds.. it probably would be better to have it diversified, but yeah, I know you love cash so much, but being in cash his not really a good idea, even if you are drawing down on the asset.


Strange.

Chowles was not arrested until 2022 for actions that he took in 2014 (to steal the 50 BTC), and then he plead guilty and was sentenced to 66 months in prison, but then it is not clear if he still has the 50 BTC.


Sure.  Quite a few aspects of the future is uncertain, and if you wonder why so many people have not sold their bitcoin already, it is partly because bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting weaker, even though in the last 10 years it's 200-WMA has moved up from right around $216 to $50,042, which is right around 232x.  And you think that bitcoin cannot do another 8.5x in the next 10-ish years?  Sure anything can happen, but 8.5x does not seem that difficult to achieve, and that is part of the reason that bitcoin remains such a great asymmetric bet to the upside. Meaning that you do not necessarily need to put a lot of value into it in order to experience the potential upside benefits.

Of course, with $1 million BTC prices in 2035, we are likely referring to spot prices, and the numbers are not really much different..The same asymmetric upside principles apply.  You can try to stay neutral, but you likely only seem a fool if you know about bitcoin and you fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP within your own means.

I also understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, but at the same time, maybe you need to study a bit about bitcoin if you really are considering that 8.5x in bitcoin in the next 10-ish years is any kind of major stretch of imagination.  We might even get 8.5x in the next 6 to 12 months.. . or alternatively within the next cycle (less than 5 years from now for the next cycle to complete). so it is not really that outrageous to consider $1 million or more by mid-2035..