If we assume that a few more old wallets will wake up on the market and sell 200-300 thousand bitcoins on exchanges, then the capitalization may fall by 20-40%. The most interesting thing is that the recent wallets that woke up transferred the coins to OTC Galaxy Digital.
I agree with you on the first point, the activity of old wallets containing large amounts of Bitcoin will lead to a decline in the price and market value. There are also concerns (still theoretical) that Satoshi's old wallets, which contain approximately one million Bitcoins, could be hacked using quantum computing and the entry of this amount into the market would undoubtedly cause a sharp decline in the price.
For the second point, yes, I heard news yesterday about a Bitcoin whale who became active after 14 years and transferred 40,000 BTC (worth approximately $4.7 billion) to OTC Galaxy Digital. But transferring Bitcoins outside the market did not significantly impact the price and these Bitcoins circulating outside the market are still part of the total supply of Bitcoin.
Satoshi's 1 million bitcoins are stored in many wallets, and it is possible that these wallets are not Satoshi's but people from his team, access to which is not lost. I do not think it is possible to hack all the wallets at once.
If I were selling my old bitcoins, I wouldn't send them to OTC Galaxy Digital. I can only assume that the owner wasn't a random computer geek.