Depends on who is fighting.  If it is my favorite team, I bet what is in my heart but on other occasions, I bet on data.  In skill-based gambling games, data is the most reliable source of getting one's chance to increase his chance of winning.  Even with intuition, it relies on the data of our experiences, so if one wanted to have a better chance of winning in sports betting, always rely on data, just like what @OP does, researching on the team, the referee performance and the recent performance of each players.