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Hasn't the shortlist been decided already and no more players will be nominated until the Ballon d'Or gala? As far as I know Dembele is the one player who has a big chance to win it. Those other players are not close to making it. Donnaruma is a great goalkeeper, but it's so tough for players other than offensive midfielders or strikers to win it.
When you think giving 12 assists is a weak score while scoring so many goals too, you are wrong. But it's correct that Raphinha has beaten everyone I think in the number of goals and assists.
It is true that it is quite difficult for a goalkeeper or a player who is not an attacker to win this most prestigious award, and even Luca Modric is the only player who plays as a midfielder to have won this award.
Donnaruma has performed well in the last season, he has been a strong last line for PSG's back line, which at least last season he managed to keep 13 clean sheets. But as you said that because he is a goalkeeper, it is unlikely for him to win the Ballon d'Or award.
The leading candidate is still Ousmane Dembele, but we'll see when the announcement comes, but if it's not Ousmane Dembele who gets it then this will cause a huge disappointment, and people will question the assessment and the exact criteria for winning the Ballon d'Or, because if you look at all aspects, Ousmane Dembele is the most worthy.