Re: I'm bored, let's debunk another martingale gambling strategy! New experiment 🏇!
from here https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/thoroughbred/australia/moruya/broulee-brewhouse-class-1-handicap-0010804ee500000000000000
There are a lot of unclear outcomes for me haha, I chose the simplest one - victory.
Hmmmm... I recalculated twice and the bookmaker's margin here is not small at all - almost 24%!
There are a lot of unclear outcomes for me haha, I chose the simplest one - victory.
Hmmmm... I recalculated twice and the bookmaker's margin here is not small at all - almost 24%!
Yeah, everyone gets surprised a bit by that but I got so used to it as I'm chasing horses that win or place, not single values (unlike in this experiment)
I will admit it does look pretty bad on paper, now you're going by implied probability, everything over 20 is cannon fodder, so those would be wiping a bit of % of those, closer to 20%, so closer to what I am used to. Usually, they are around 20% for grade2/3 races, including that extra baggage,
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2025-07-19/newbury/869007/hallgarten-and-novum-wines-hackwood-stakes-group-3
go lower in grade and expect to encounter 30%
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2025-07-20/redcar/869048/racing-tv-apprentice-handicap
Quote
After football and tennis, I find it hard to perceive such figures. Although in fact, it is very logical and fits into the pattern where the higher the volatility, the higher the bookmaker's margin.
Not to defend them, but no way in hell would a bookie offer something like in the 5-10% like tennis and keep afloat with horses, not unless he is playing with luck too.