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That kind of growth can be exciting, almost surreal turning $3k into $210k is life changing, and naturally you will want to share it with those closest to you. But in reality, sharing those numbers can open the door to a lot of unexpected outcomes, jealousy, pressure, unrealistic expectations, or even security risks.
I am mentioning something that could happen, if a guy had $3k worth of bitcoin in mid-2015 when BTC prices were $250, which would subsequently play out like this for 12 BTC.
December 2017 - BTC price $19,666 - 12 BTC value = $235,992
December 2018 - BTC price $3,800 - 12 BTC value = $45,600
February 2020 - BTC price $9,500 - 12 BTC value = $114k
March 2020 - BTC price $3,800 - 12 BTC value = $45,600
April 2021 - BTC price $63k - 12 BTC value = $756k
July 2021 - BTC price $31.5k - 12 BTC value = $378k
April 2021 - BTC price $69k - 12 BTC value = $828k
November 2022 - BTC price $15,479 - 12 BTC value = $185,748
July 14, 2025 - BTC price $123,236 - 12 BTC value = $1,478,832Lots of fluctuation for the 12 BTC over the past 10 years even though starting out with a $3k value and now having close to $1.5 million spot price, and even $602.3k for the 200-WMA, which I would suggest that 12 BTC has a current sustainable withdrawal rate of $60k per year.
This really puts into perspective how much long term conviction pays off in Bitcoin. Turning $3k into 12 BTC back in 2015 might have seemed like a gamble to many at the time, but looking at how that value has evolved through multiple market cycles shows the strength of patience and belief in the asset. What’s more interesting is that despite wild volatility, the trajectory remains up over time. The idea of 12 BTC sustaining a $60k/year withdrawal rate today just shows how wealth preservation and growth is possible with Bitcoin if managed right. A powerful reminder why HODLing through chaos still makes sense.
It is better to stay humble, keep stacking quietly, and let your long terrm discipline speak for itself later on. Sometimes the best way to help close friends or family is by guiding them toward understanding Bitcoin rather than showing off your results. That way, they can build their conviction and stack on their own terms.
Easier said than done.
Let me know if you have any success persuading friends and/or family to get to know bitcoin and to actually take action that focuses on investing into bitcoin rather than shitcoins and/or trading.
Yeah, it’s definitely not easy. Most of them just want quick flips or think Bitcoin already pumped. I just let them be until they are ready to listen.
A lot of people learned the hard way that security should grow with your stack. What felt secure enough at $250 per BTC didn’t hold up when BTC hit $19k or more. And yeah, while 2021 didn’t feel as crazy as 2017 or 2013, the gains were still life changing for many. These cycles really do teach us, not just about holding, but also about how to stay prepared when success shows up faster than expected.......
Even with myself. I had been through the downside of the 2013 cycle and both the upside and downside of the 2017 cycle, but even in 2019-2021 when the BTC price went up from $4,200 in April 2019 to $64k in April 2021 and then it dropped to $30k in summer 2021 and returned to $69k in November 2021, there can be some periods of surprise to have some wallets go up somewhere in the ballpark of 16x from the bottom to the top.
Even some folks in this particular cycle might have had some coins that they bought or held in November/December 2022 that were in the $16k to $20k prices, and even now when we had BTC prices go up to $120k, so then those coins had gone up 6x to 7x, which is also nothing to sneeze at, and there are folks who never had experienced 2x or 3x in value appreciating through their lives and then they are able to personally experience 6x/7x price appreciation in the past 2.5 years.. and if a guy is still accumulating he might not know what to do. If a guy had done most of his accumulation prior to October 2023, he might just feel so amazed to be on the journey, if we might consider the possibility that some guys had gotten enough BTC, yet there are way more guys who are still needing to accumulate and not to get thrown off by past bitcoin price performance in regards to their need to keep accumulating bitcoin no matter the price so that maybe they will be in a better place 4-10 years or more down the road.
One of the key takeaways from your experience is how different each cycle feels, even if the patterns rhyme, the emotions, surprises, and outcomes can still catch people off guard, whether they are new or seasoned.
Seeing 6x–7x gains in just a couple of years is lifechanging, especially for people whohave never experienced anything close to that before. But like you rightly pointed out, those who are still accumulating should not let past performance paralyze them. Every cycle brings new chances, and what is more important than price is positioning and mindset.
Those who accumulated before October 2023 are probably feeling validated now but it doesn't mean the window is closed. Bitcoin is long term, and the real magic tends to show up years down the line, not just one or two. Accumulating consistently, staying humble, and keeping your strategy in place is how you position yourself to benefit from whatever future upside may come, whether it is 4 years or 10 years down the road...
Anyone who is a no coiner or a low coiner has to get started buying bitcoin in order to be prepared for up.. Otherwise they are not prepared for up.
And yeah, it could take 4-10 years or longer for someone to stack enough bitcoin to start to feel comfortable that he has enough or more than enough.
Even though measurements can be made along the path, sometimes the first several years can feel that progress is being made slowly, even though there are some folks who are able to front load their investment into bitcoin in their beginning years of investing into it.
Many underestimate how critical just getting started is whether you are a no coiner or still working your way up the ladder, the worst position to be in during a parabolic run is to be unprepared. Bitcoin doesn't wait, and those who delay stacking often find themselves chasing green candles instead of calmly riding the wave.
And yes, the early years can feel slow and even discouraging at times, especially if you are using DCA modestly. But the compounding effect of consistent stacking paired with Bitcoin's asymmetric upside can be incredible over a 4-10 year horizon. Frontloading is great if one can afford it, but for most, the key is simply staying the course and continuing to accumulate. Time and conviction do the rest.