People are too optimistic and forget that the more mature and bigger bitcoin gets, the slower its growth. It will not be able to increase exponentially x3, x5 like previous cycles.
Like the current cycle, although the bull season is not over yet, but if we compare it to the 2021 peak of $69k. Bitcoin hasn't even doubled yet, let alone bigger goals like x3 or x5.
If this bull run ends and Bitcoin hits all-time high of $150k, I doubt Bitcoin can hit $300k in the next cycle, let alone $500k.
I agree, I'm seeing extravagant predictions that I'm having a hard time believing they'll ever be fulfilled. $200,000 which is a quite popular speculation is almost double the current price, this price change won't happen anytime soon, but it is possible throughout the next 5 years; it's still however a great price difference. Imagine that for $500,000 or up to $1M that some people sre saying. The current market cap is at $2.3T, a simple X2 in value is almost at $5T market cap.
Anywhere between $200,000 and $270,000 might be a more realistic target for the next bull market period, in approximately 4 years.