Still have to say something that is somewhat controversial if you want someone to take the opposite side of the bet, and guys are likely not going to get lured into the no more sub $100k side of the bet, unless you give odds, and you don't want to give that... so maybe guys might think 70/30 or something but you are still only saying 50/50 so it is probably not enough to get anyone excited to take the bulllish side of that.


Yep.. those days are long gone.. . I recall in  2017 that the price shortly ran over the page number and then it took until 2021 to surpass it again, and surely we fell back below in 2022.. .. .. so those kinds of prices do really seem to be gone, forever... even though post parity is likely going to start to become relevant at some point in the fairly near future.


It is amazing how much those of us who had done most of our bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 were greatly saved by our having had mostly accumulated our bitcoin prior to then (if we might even use $8k-ish as our average cost per BTC).. and if we had accumulated any kind of bitcoin stash, that bitcoin has largely 15x'd in value in the past 5-ish years, even though fiat based prices might have doubled or maybe a bit more than doubled in some cases in the same time period.. Sure there are some items that might have had tripled in price during that time, but our trusty cornz have more than held their own in the whole scheme of things during the past 5-ish years (again presuming that we had mostly done a large majority of our stashing prior to 2021). 

It is also not bad for guys who had not done most of their BTC stashing prior to 2021, and bitcoin is likely going to continue to save guys, even though it tends to take a while to build a bitcoin stash and it seems to me that we cannot expect to get richie in only one cycle, but in two cycles the historical results have been pretty decent for guys who have errored on the side of accumulating BTC and holding it.

Future is not guaranteed but still looking pretty good in the whole scheme of things.


My thoughts exactly.  I was going to do it.. but I cannot.. even though $1million is even more than a few percentages of possibility for this cycle,  and so there should be decent chances of touching $1 million for the next cycle.. through the end of 2029-ish.

My 200-WMA projection shows $325 for the middle of 2032.. so surely we are going to need some higher bitcoin numbers to drag up the 200-WMA at a faster rate.

My current working theory is that overall the BTC price tends to spend most of its time at least 25% above the 200-WMA.... Even though from time to time the BTC price corrects back down to the 200-WMA and can also go below it for usually (but not always) short periods of time.

Do I sound too bearish?  Cannot even muster up a wee-widdo batslappening.....

I think that the punchline is that these days, I feel MOAR better as bottoms kind of guy rather than a top guy.


One thing is crossing over it, and another thing is sustaining it.. yet I am still thinking that you are too bearish.. but yeah, getting over $250k this cycle would be helpful to the theory that $1 million-ish or whatever post parity happens to be at the time is in reach for the 2026 to 2029 cycle.


I am tentatively thinking that once the BTC price gets above $333k, then sub-$100k is no longer in the cards, unless we go to $333k too quickly.