BTC's price movement is not totally random, and even within parameters the price moves within limitations that might not be completely obvious, even if we can proclaim that the future is not predetermined either, even though some future scenarios have higher odds as compared with other future scenarios.  Part of the reason that we can bat around ideas and disagree relates to the varying reasonable scenarios with some scenarios being more likely than others... yet we don't all see the information equally and that was part of the reason why you were willing to give me 10:1 odds.