I considered Arthur Hayes to be something similar to Jim Cramer when I created this thread. Someone who is wrong most of the time on the predictions. However, there is an argument that people can be wrong until they have made a correct prediction.

Will Arthur Hayes' prediction on a bitcoin pump to $250k become real?



Who will buy the debt? Stablecoin issuers.

As the total market cap of crypto rises, a portion of that is stored in stablecoins. The vast majority of these stablecoin assets under custody (AUC) are invested in US Treasury bills. Therefore, if the Trump administration can provide a favorable regulatory landscape for TradFi to participate and invest in crypto, its total market cap will surge. Then the stablecoin AUC rises automatically, which creates more buying power for Treasury bills. US Treasury Secretary Bessent will continue to issue vastly more T-bills than Treasury notes or bonds to be purchased by stablecoin issuers.

Now Trump and Bessent have squared the circle:

They copied China and created an American fascist economic system to produce the wartime goods needed to continue dropping bombs indiscriminately.

The credit growth-inspired financial asset inflationary impulse is directed at crypto, which dutifully screams higher, and a wide swath of the population feels wealthier due to their sick gains. They will be voting Republican in 2026 and 2028 … unless they have a teenage daughter … or maybe plebes always vote with their wallets.

A rising crypto market creates massive inflows into stablecoins pegged to the USD. These issuers invest their AUC in newly minted T-bills, which finance the ever-expanding federal deficit.

The kick drum is thumping. The credit is pumping. Why are you not fully invested in crypto? Don’t be scurred of tariffs, of war, or of random social issues.

My year-end targets:
Bitcoin = $250,000
Ether = $10,000

Read in full https://cryptohayes.medium.com/time-signature-27c516884c71