Man, I really felt this, It's strange that we also defend it to ourselves as in, (if this hits, it changes everything,) and all of a sudden we're giving a one in a hundred chance a chance and  sometimes the feeling of being correct in the face of overwhelming odds is more important than the money, that rush of excitement when the underdog takes the lead... That moment feels like gold, even if it doesn't last, and you're right it's more like wishful thinking with a price tag than a true strategy, though, is that hitting a long shot once causes your brain to malfunction, you begin to think that it might occur once more, and suddenly you find yourself in the middle of it