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You brought up a lot of ggod points. This dip around 114k definitely looks like a local bottom bounce. But as we've all seen before, Bitcoin doesn't move in a straight line. A bit of sideways and even a deepper retrace wouldnt be shocking. Especially with some people eager to sell in strength. Fire sales? Maybe. But I think the temporary breaks in an upward trend are where the strong hands Step in.
Your strategy with the staggered buys and sells really makes sense as it's a calm and calculated approach in an emotional market.
I don't want to give a wrong impression to newbies, since I don't claim to be trading, and I believe that selling bitcoin to accumulate bitcoin is a wrong move.
Accordingly, I believe that anyone in their first whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin, likely needs to focus on buying no matter what until they get to overaccumulation status.. which could take 4-10 years or longer, unless you are able to front load your bitcoin investment, then you might be able to reach overaccumulation status faster.
Another thing is that i have been selling bitcoin on the way up since about mid to late 2015, yet I kind of screwed up the end of 2015, so maybe I did not really start selling on the way up until later.. but still my intial plan was only to be able to sell up to 10% for every doubling of the BTC price, and surely over the years I sell way less than 10% for every doubling of the price.
I ONLY started to sell BTC because I had calculated that I had gotten to an overaccumulation status, yet my definition of overaccumulation status was different in 2015 as compared to what it is now.
Guys have to figure out for themselves how much BTC they want/need and how much is enough or more than enough, and I really doubt that it is a good idea to sell bitcoin in order to accumulate bitcoin.
You accumulate bitcoin by buying it through DCA, lump sum and/or buying on the dip, and you likely need to buy persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively for a whole cycle or more before you might be able to change your style, unless you are able to front load your investment, as I mentioned earlier.
This kind of system-based DCA+laddered-exit plan can quietly gain while everyone else is trying to time tops and bottoms. Even if each individual fill doesn’t make a massive difference, over 10+ cycles it really starts compounding and showing itself.
I consider DCA to be a good way to get into bitcoin, along with supplementing such strategy with lump sum buying and buying on dips. I don't really consider DCA to be a good way to exit bitcoin, and I don't even consider exiting bitcoin to be a good idea, even though I do believe in sustainable withdrawal that can be either price based and/or time based. I have a
thread on the sustainable withdrawal topic, which also I do not consider to apply unless a guy had first reached overaccumulation status..
And yes, The corrections of 25%+ can shake he tree really hard but like you said its part of the process. Whether we get a V-shape pattern or grind down steady these phases will work to reset leverage and get rid of weak hands.
In the end it's still a game of patience and positioning. The bears might feel bold for a bit but they'll over stay their welcome.
Of course, historically bitcoin has had quite wild and deep correction periods, even during bull cycles, so frequently the bears will shake as many weak hands as they can, and sure at some point, they may weill end up overdoing it, and there are no more weak hands to shake, so they can end up not being able to recuperate whatever sales they had made in order to drive down the prices for as long as they could and as far as they could, and at some point, there just aren't any more sellers, and some bears might end up overdoing it or even shorting during the recovery but the BTC price just continues to recovery and wreck short after short after short.
Hm? That could be. I already responded, so I will leave my response, as I already wrote it.