La Liga is filled with unpredictable outcomes I must confess. Early predictions came in too early? I do agree with your predictions based on the current statistics and standings. Hansi Flick have made every possible scene to ensure he's having a greater team for next season. They've smashed records and becoming the dream clubs of most of these footballers coming up. Barcelona have made name for themselves following the crucial performance and how they're winning titles. They're bigger than every oppositions except for Real Madrid that have become a burden for them.
Statistically, Hansi Flick has a much better chance of retaining the title than Xabi Alonso because the players have generally adapted to him. On the other hand, Xabi Alonso may still need to adapt and find a suitable strategy to implement. However, no one knows for sure the final result because in the previous season, many predicted Real Madrid would win La Liga, but it turned out otherwise. Real Madrid and Barcelona will once again be competing for the title, and it remains difficult to determine who has the better chance.
Very difficult because every new season comes with its level of surprises. What you thought would become of a team might end up, somehow, for them in a way you never imagined.
Nobody thought Barcelona would later become a tough team when Xavi left, not to mention the lack of funds to buy quality players at the time. That was a major blow to the Barcelona team until Flick turned around the ugly side of the team, to what it is today, to compete for the LaLiga trophy and the Champions League. The same thing can happen to Real Madrid, for Xabi to turn Real Madrid into a more formidable team than they were last season, to beat Barcelona from it.