Bitcoin is higly volatile - don't doubt it. That doesn't mean it's bad - it's natural. Volatility helps to open a window for new investors to profit in the Bitcoin market, lower rate implies buy, and expect multiples in the future.
Implied volatility - trying to predict the future is complex to do, it depends on options instrisic value, so traders must listen to the market potentials to know how the trend will be. Also, remember that volatility is not an enough reason to abandon your asset, it's considered a mistake.
I think your analysis is very important, your comments are reasonable. Yes, it is true that Bitcoin's volatility is scary for many, but for conscious investors it really offers opportunities for profit. It is difficult to predict, but the market depends on different technologies, the market is affected by different factors. Volatility is not only negative.