People who consider bitcoin to be too expensive don't understand bitcoin, and even if they end up buying on the dip, they will end up selling way too much too soon.
I think this happens more to newbies. Maybe after getting an idea about Bitcoin, they think the current price is expensive after seeing the past price of Bitcoin. Actually, Bitcoin has never been expensive, Bitcoin has not been expensive in the past and Bitcoin is not expensive in the present either, because the price of Bitcoin will not remain stable here, but rather the price of Bitcoin will increase a lot over time. Now those who think Bitcoin is expensive should gain proper knowledge about Bitcoin, because if they do not have proper knowledge, they will not consider Bitcoin trustworthy. You have to invest in Bitcoin with trust and hold it.
Not only newbies have this mindset of not buying bitcoin at the bull run and say that's expensive. Even old forum members also have this mindset because they are more focused on buying and the bear market and sell at the bull run.
Such people are only traders and will regret their actions in future when they will be left with very little bitcoin and miss out from the compounding value of their portfolio.
Of course, it is a worse issue for longer term holders to sell too much bitcoin too soon because they are expecting to be able to buy bitcoin back cheaper than the price that they sold it.
Yet, the error does not have to go that far, since there are plenty of folks who might try to play the cycles in the way that they buy bitcoin too, and they think that they are outsmarting the market because they know about the cycles, so they figure that they will buy during the dips and just hold during the rips and just let their money stack up during such rip periods, yet they still likely end up with way too few bitcoin because they are not regularly buying, and surely many of us likely realize that if we can spend at least a whole cycle or maybe even a cycle and a half or two ongoingly buying bitcoin, then at some point, we will reach a level of bitcoin that we have enough.. even if we have not quite reached fuck you status yet. It is difficult to imagine very many folks who are able to get to such status in less than a whole cycle unless they were able to front load their bitcoin investment, and even if they were able to front-load their bitcoin investment, they still might not have had been able to get close to enough bitcoin so that it makes sense for them to stop or slow down in their bitcoin accumualtion practices (through ongoing buying).
They fail to understand that the bitcoin that you bought when the price was $17k in 2022, cannot be bought for such amount again after they sell it. You buy bitcoin for higher amount overtime because the price keeps on increasing overtime.
Of course these are good points, and there is a lot of value to the earlier accumulated coins even if they might have prices all over the place, and even in the last 4-5 years, if a guy had been buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, he then likely bought coins at all kinds of price levels, and sure some of the coins have way higher level of profits, yet at the same time, it is likely that the more important question is the ongoing accumulation of bitcoin rather than getting preoccupied by selling some coins and taking profits.. and then still not having enough coins.. so then why would a guy sell from one hand and then buy back with the other hand, because his current status is (or should be) ongoing accumulation and not fucking around with selling until he gets to a certain level, which could take more than a cycle or two in order to get to a level where any selling might start to make sense.
So he starts out with more strict accumulation through ongoing buying, and then after a cycle or so he might get to a point that he can start to slow down in his bitcoin accumulation and even allowing some time to pass before he might graduate to a place where some selling might start to make sense. which should be at a point that he had reached some kind of overaccumulation status..
You're right that it can be very very challenging to attempt timing the market and trying to outsmart the cycles. I know a lot of folks who actually think they can buy low and hold during the highs, but this approach is even more difficult than it sounds and can be pretty tough to execute perfectly. A more reliable way to accumulate a sizable amount of Bitcoin remains to prioritize and engaging in consistently accumulating Bitcoin over a whole cycle or even more.
The idea of reaching a state of overaccumulation can be quite interesting. It's not just about stacking up a particular amount or number if Bitcoin somewhere, but also more about having that feeling that you're financially secure and also have a good amount of confidence in your investment strategy. For most investors, it's a long term process that requires a lot discipline, patience and of course resilience.
About deciding to front load one's investment, yeah, to an extent it can certainly give folks a pretty great head start, but this doesn't in anyways guarantee that they'll reach financial independence or reach a fuck you status. Even with a sizable chunk of Bitcoin, it's still important to prioritize consistent buying and an effective financial management in order to achieve one's long term management goals.
One very unique perspective about this whole process is that it's not really about how much amount of Bitcoin you've managed to stack up, but mostly about the financial habit and discipline you've managed to develop along the way as you accumulate. Through consistent investing and learning, you'll be able to build quite a solid foundation for financial stability, security and success, irrespective of the temporary fluctuations of the market.