Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Damit, I could really use a little leg up right now.
Reason being that I am only allowed to drive my 20yr old car for another 20 days now as it failed inspection and they demand that I replace a shock absorber. Would be fine with that, but Opel isn't producing/selling these shock absorbers any more. Couldn't get one in after market either, not even 2nd hand as it seems very special (somethingsomething sports-electronic-control bla). I liked that car a lot but it is what it is.
Reason being that I am only allowed to drive my 20yr old car for another 20 days now as it failed inspection and they demand that I replace a shock absorber. Would be fine with that, but Opel isn't producing/selling these shock absorbers any more. Couldn't get one in after market either, not even 2nd hand as it seems very special (somethingsomething sports-electronic-control bla). I liked that car a lot but it is what it is.
We used to have a world in which all kinds of repairs were part of the norm, yet in recent times, more and more products have become unrepairable.. Even if you end up getting another car, there may be something that you find out at some later point.. such as an ability to repair your shock absorbers.... yet I understand too that you also need to pass inspection...
And, sure, i might be fighting with the hypothetical too much, since maybe the point is about the need to potentially sell some corn due to a new expense related to car replacement.
So I found a used Mercedes caravan that would really fit us well but I need to cash out some corn first and I have this tingling feeling in my guts that once I press the sell button price will shoot up to 140k in an instant. I have no problem shelling out a few sats for that but after stacking and hodling for about a decade I feel like a few days or weeks could really make a difference here. Money means nothing to me, though BTC does.
Talked this now over and over with the missus and we decided to just give a fuck for now - we will wait for a better price first (clearly over 130, ideally even more) - and if things go seriously south we don't care if we have to walk to the grocery store for a few weeks.
I mean who needs a friggin car, right? (oh wait, occasionally I really do)
If somebody would have told me two years ago that I will be too stingy to sell at 118k to buy a car, I would have laughed out loud at him.. Hodling really changes perspective, especially for those in FU mode. Cars come and go, but BTC that one sells never comes back..
</privileged whining>
Talked this now over and over with the missus and we decided to just give a fuck for now - we will wait for a better price first (clearly over 130, ideally even more) - and if things go seriously south we don't care if we have to walk to the grocery store for a few weeks.
I mean who needs a friggin car, right? (oh wait, occasionally I really do)
If somebody would have told me two years ago that I will be too stingy to sell at 118k to buy a car, I would have laughed out loud at him.. Hodling really changes perspective, especially for those in FU mode. Cars come and go, but BTC that one sells never comes back..
</privileged whining>
You seem to be on the edge of having enough bitcoin but maybe not having more than enough bitcoin in such a way that it is obvious that you have more than enough bitcoin.
Of course, no one wants to suffer a 15% to 20% or more cut to their BTC.. or what they could have had gotten from a sale of BTC, yet in some sense there is not a real BIG difference between $118k and $140k.. yet it also may depend on how many BTC that you have.
For example, if you were to be right at fuck you status (let's say 15.769 BTC for an anticipated withdrawal rate of $6,666 per month), then you have no extra BTC for the extra expenses and you might not even feel psychologically comfortable to cash out at your $6,666 per month level. On the other hand, if you were to be more than 100% higher than your threshold fuck you status (let's say more than 32 BTC in this example), then you might not give too many shits about selling a few extra satoshis here and there in order to satisfy some of your expenses (even potentially some BIGGER item expenses from time to time)... so then there becomes a question about the quantity of the BTC cushion that you might have that may well motivate you in regards to how concerned you are about our current $118k BTC prices versus the possibility of $140k BTC prices within a short-term in the future, that may or may not end up happening... but yeah, I am with you that the odds for $140k within a few months is decently high, perhaps even getting into the arena of 60%, and some folks might even consider such odds for $140k and higher to be even greater than 60%.
Also maybe with potentially BIG ticket items, there may be preferences to have even greater than 100% cushions to be spending from our excess bitcoin holdings before we might start to not be so worried about such extra spendings... The threshold likely differs.. .. and if you were at 3x (such as 48 BTC in the hypothetical) your fuck you status threshold or 4x (64 BTC) or 5x (80 BTC).. at some point, you would likely become less concerned about shaving off some BTC, and the BIG ticket item would not really seem to be considered as a BIG ticket item.
Thanks for your consideration and advice regarding FU numbers.
The problem is not actually replacing that thing with a "dumb" replacement for like $50 from the same model without the special sport version of shock absorber electronic adjustment for the "sportfahrwerk" of that (whatever that may be called in english - and ofc I didn't know I have "sportfahrwerk" until I needed the shock absorber
), the thing is there would be a orange shock absorber led warning lamp in the dashboard showing error and the inspection would fail. Pretty sure my car will end up as VIP taxi in some 3rd world country for another 10yrs.Our society claims to be sooo sustainable and green but a car today has a maximum lifespan of 10-15yrs. While looking for the shock absorbers everywhere I even heard things like "Oh, 20yrs is not bad, we have cars that are not anymore maintainable after 6-7 yrs".
But that must be me and you only who think repairing stuff and using it for another 10yrs is sustainable.. Though admittedly buying new is better for the economy.
The amount to spend and the worry of mine are purely emotional, technical the amount doesn't matter so much at 118, you are right. But something in me wants to squeeze out more car for less corn
