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There are so many tools casinos can use to detect if a player is playing from a restricted region or not. Some of these tools are paid why some can be programmed. We don't have to think like we are smarter than the casino that allow us to play bet on their platform because they own our funds and can at the same time check if we are actually following their teams or not. There are plenty of ways to detect the . location of a player and when something is fishy, the casino can request for KYC from the player which is when everything will be unveiled.
For sure these casinos has all the resources to caught up with any player who is gambling from a restricted location through VPN. Some gamblers may assume themselves to be smart when they haven't been caught but it's really not out of their smartness though. Just maybe, the casino hasn't yet placed you on their watchlist to cramp you done with clear forensics, but the moment you're placed on watchlist you will definitely be caught.
You are right, the only reason that a player will be playing from a restricted area with a VPN and don't get caught is if the casino hasn't placed the player on their watchlist.
For a player playing from a restricted area with a help of a paid VPN, it may seem hard for the casino to find out but there is always a way to catch a monkey at the end of the day, and one of that major ways that have never failed to work is by the casino simply asking the user to pass kyc verification, this one is something the player can not escape from if truly he or she has been playing from a restricted area, except he or she is going to travel to the same country he as been accessing the casino from, get the government issued document there to perform the kyc with, this is a very long process and will cost the player a lot of money, even much more than the amount he owns on the casino.