Actually for a sensitivity model on Bitcoin's 10 year annualized return I think I'd go with a range starting from minus 10% for a rare market meltdown and a bad scenario at 5% for stagnation then a neutral case around 20% while a good scenario hits 45% with strong adoption and finally the "God came to dinner" like you mentioned  .

Well the thing is everyone of them actually occurred during different periods but the 45% is the most common especially for the last couple of years. -10% was way too brief around shortly after Hal and Satoshi's time.