Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".
I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).
What range would you use and why?
As you wish.
The crystal ball says that within 10 years, bitcoin will show a return of 500% to 750%. Despite the fact that many "tomorrow" expect to see bitcoin at a price of $1 mln., it seems to me that this will not happen in the next decade, because it should be taken into account that bitcoin has periods of depreciation, and also, for the growth of the value, more and more capitalization (investments) will be required. I assume that the growth rate will also decrease and I expect that within 10 years, bitcoin will reach the level of $500k-$750k (there were interferences in my crystal ball).