Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 04/08/2025, 16:41:22 UTC
So to this end, it's more advisable to focus on the amount you intend to invest and the period of time you intend to invest such amount (probably 10 years or more) instead of focusing on the amount of bitcoin you wish to acquire which could expose you to investing beyond your capacity when the time frame seems too short to achieve same. What matters more is accumulating continuous and seeing bitcoin rise to where it belongs. Whichever way, you still stand a chance to make profits at them end.
I don't agree to this your theorem sir, the main reason for having an accumulation target is to have a benchmark you wish you achieve in your involvement into Bitcoin and your holding period which is a period you estimate to have reached such target or even exceeded it and should be a long-term holding period for more profits. You motivate yourself continuously with the target you've set for yourself to achieve in your investment into Bitcoin as you follow up your accumulation journey constantly reminding yourself that there's no need to stop until you get there.

This would help you work smarter to be able to increase your income or manage your cashflow better in order to increase your aggressiveness without overdoing it and try reaching that target sooner before the termination of your holding period.

The main problem here is that some investors set unachievable goals, like setting out to achieve 5 BTC in 10 years, while having a discretionary income of $1000 monthly. Setting an achievable target would help motivate you to keep up since it's achievable within your income level and you would even strive to increase your income in order to beat your target time and reach over accumulation stage still within your holding period.

It is problematic when folks set unachievable goals, and it tends to be better to set goals within your reach that might even be more concrete in shorter periods such as what are you going to do for the next 3-9 months in regards to your bitcoin accumulation, and where do you expect to be in 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 8 years, 10 years etc..  The further out the projections (goals) would be more vague and you might even have base case, worse case and best case scenarios that may also project into the future... and a best case scenario for a guy to reach 5 BTC in 10 years with his current income level would have to include ways of figuring out how to increase income.. and/or other ways of earning bitcoin (which is a similar thing). and sometimes the best case scenarios are so much detached from reality that they are something like fantasy scenarios, which might not be very productive, yet they might not hurt anything as long as they are coupled with more realistic and more likely scenarios..

So to this end, it's more advisable to focus on the amount you intend to invest and the period of time you intend to invest such amount (probably 10 years or more) instead of focusing on the amount of bitcoin you wish to acquire which could expose you to investing beyond your capacity when the time frame seems too short to achieve same.
Focusing on the time duration of when you will accumulate bitcoin to will not help you build a bigger portfolio, because when the time reaches, you might feel that you have reach your bitcoin goal and stop accumulation bitcoin, whereas, you still have the capacity to continue with increasing your bitcoin investment. It's better that you set a bitcoin target as your accumulation goal so that you can focus and keep your bitcoin investment consistent and ongoing till you reach your bitcoin target.

In future, you might not reach your bitcoin target but you will be close, it depends on how many bitcoin that you set as your target to accumulate. Setting a target make you more committed and discipline if you are serious with your bitcoin accumulation.

Let's say that six years ago (that would have had been August 2019), a person had wanted to be very aggressive in his bitcoin investment, and he looked back historically, and he saw that a person who had merely invested 10% to 15% of his income into bitcoin could have had reached a good quantity of bitcoin and even to have had been on his way to reaching overaccumulaton status after a couple of cycles. 

At the same time, he realizes that he cannot go back in history, yet he would likely have to be more aggressive if he wants  to attempt to be able to do the same thing, so he decided to invest 25% of his income and so he figured that he would have had invested 1 full year of his income into bitcoin after 4 years and a year and a half of his income in 1.5 years.. so he considered that he might be able to get close to overaccumulation status after about 6 years investing.. perhaps?  depending on how bitcoin does and if he can stay committed in investing 25% of his income into bitcoin.

Let's say that he has a $40k per year income and so 25% would be $10,000 per year, and so he decides to invest $200 per week, and he also would like to reach his target and to be able to retire and to passively withdraw $80k per year.  If he had not been able to lump sum invest into bitcoin, we might look at his situation and see that right now if we look at his situation, he had invested right around $63k, and he had accumulated 2.82 bitcoin.  2.82 BTC is only going to give him right around $14.4k per year of income, so he is a little bit less than 1/5 from his goal, yet if he looks at projected values of BTC into the future, and if he considers that if he keeps accumulating bitcoin at a similar rate, then he may well be able to exceed 3.5 BTC in another 5 years in order to be able to get to his overaccumulation status target to be able to draw a sustainable $80k per year income from his BTC investment.

Even if a guy is very aggressive, it can take a decently long time to both build up the bitcoin holdings to a sufficiently large enough amount and also to have a decent amount of time pass in order to allow for the BTC's value to sufficiently compound upon itself.  Surely if our same guy might have had been able to supplement his bitcoin investment in 2019 by lump summing into bitcoin, and let's say that he had something like $12k, then he might have had been able to start out investing in 2019 with 2 BTC and so then by the time he reaches his current status his total invested into bitcoin might have had been $85k and with 4.82 BTC accumulated, and so he would have had been in a better spot, but still not quite able to withdraw $80k per year since 4.82 BTC would only be able to allow him to withdraw right around $24.6k per year, yet from the bitcoin projection chart, he can see that in 3.5 years, 5 BTC will likely be enough for him to be able to start to withdraw $80k per year in his income, and he clearly believes that he can accumulate at his current rate or even a reduced rate .. or even if he stops accumulating, his already accumulated stash of 4.82 BTC would be enough after the clock runs for another 3-ish years or less.

...... and the investment method should be to deposit Bitcoin through DCA consistently, but it will definitely bring positive results.

Even if we do everything perfectly, we are not guaranteed positive results.