I’d split it something like this, based on historical volatility and where I think we’re heading:
>Catastrophic: –20% p.a. (big ban or hack)
>Bearish: 0% p.a. (sideways, low interest)
>Neutral: +20% p.a. (steady adoption)
>Bullish: +50% p.a. (ETF flows + institutions)
>“God Mode”: +100% p.a. (massive macro push)
I temper early triple-digit returns since Bitcoin’s maturing, but 20–50% feels reasonable long-term. I plan by DCA’ing via MoonPay (straight to my wallet) and stress-test cash flows against these buckets.
What buckets are you using?
Not sure about the question. I am hodling since a few years back and getting a few sats from this and that add campaign and the like. What I make stays there in general terms, so I guess I am to a point time-diversifying.
I think that based on user Bitcoin posts, it may be reasonable to have one or two really bad years from time to time based on history, but as of today your scenarios seem good.
As I would like to say - we wouldn't be able to see green without the red, and vice versa.
On BTC, this logic is truly there too.