Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: What Is This Bitcoin Cycle's Biggest Scam?
by
nutildah
on 12/08/2025, 17:17:16 UTC
⭐ Merited by d5000 (1)
There has not even been 1 serious case of a treasury company that has turned out to be a scam.

Not 1 serious case... so far...

Doesn't mean it can't happen. If BTC were to drop precipitously, Microstrategy could find itself in something of a death spiral while taking the price further along with it. This would be far worse than a scam, yet still also a scam.

Say for whatever reason the price of BTC suddenly drops by 50% (it has happened BTW). The following scenario could play out:*

[1. Balance Sheet Shock]
   | Bitcoin holdings lose $30B
   | Assets plummet (~90% BTC)
   v
[2. Stock Price Crash]
   | MSTR stock drops 40-60%
   | Investor panic
   v
[3. Debt Covenant Pressure]
   | Debt covenants (on $4B+ convertible notes) are tested
   | Reduction of collateral, covenant breaches
   v
[4. Forced BTC Sale]   
   | Sell BTC at loss   
   | Assets erode
   v
[5. Shareholder Dilution]
   | Issue new shares   
   | Stock price falls
   v
[6. Operational Strain]
   | Cash flow diverted
   | Business weakens
   v
[7. Insolvency Risk]
   | Bankruptcy
   | restructuring
   v
[END: Fragile Stability or Collapse]


* I made this with the help of Grok BTW, NGL, since I started a famous thread about busting people for unattributed AI plagiarism... I did have to tweak a few things here and there.