There has not even been 1 serious case of a treasury company that has turned out to be a scam.
Not 1 serious case... so far...
Doesn't mean it can't happen. If
BTC were to drop precipitously, Microstrategy could find itself in something of a death spiral while taking the price further along with it. This would be far worse than a scam, yet still also a scam.
Say for whatever reason the price of
BTC suddenly drops by 50% (it
has happened BTW). The following scenario could play out:*
[1. Balance Sheet Shock]
| Bitcoin holdings lose $30B
| Assets plummet (~90% BTC)
v
[2. Stock Price Crash]
| MSTR stock drops 40-60%
| Investor panic
v
[3. Debt Covenant Pressure]
| Debt covenants (on $4B+ convertible notes) are tested
| Reduction of collateral, covenant breaches
v
[4. Forced BTC Sale]
| Sell BTC at loss
| Assets erode
v
[5. Shareholder Dilution]
| Issue new shares
| Stock price falls
v
[6. Operational Strain]
| Cash flow diverted
| Business weakens
v
[7. Insolvency Risk]
| Bankruptcy
| restructuring
v
[END: Fragile Stability or Collapse]
* I made this with the help of Grok BTW, NGL, since I started a famous thread about busting people for unattributed AI plagiarism... I did have to tweak a few things here and there.