We can put ourselves into real psychological barriers by looking at the historical price, and we even had been part of that history and perhaps lost out of a couple of good years of bitcoin investing that we could have had done, but we did not do it and we continue to feel regret about it.
This is true, many in the past get stuck in and thinking about the missed opportunity. But what can we do? We can't just turn back the clock. This regret can stop them from taking action in the present. But then again, we can always find a solution: We should focus on the future and not the past. Maybe it's true that the best time to accumulate bitcoin was years ago, but the second best time is today. If we can push ourselves by starting now, then we're still ahead and will gain a multi-year head start on those new investors who will enter in the next cycle. So come to think about it.
So yeah one of the solutions is to just get started and to build your bitcoin holdings for a whole cycle or more and then to reassess. Sure you cannot make up for the past, yet it seems likely that after 1 cycle or more investing into bitcoin, many of us will see how far ahead we are of the guys who are likely going to be just getting started in bitcoin, yet by the time we get through a whole cycle, we will have a whole 4 years of a head start on the guys who will be just coming into bitcoin 4-years from now.
And by committing to hold to at least one full cycle, we can avoid the trap of timing the market as everyone is going to struggle with it. As as we all know, Bitcoin's 4 year cycle as seen is creating patterns of appreciation and consolidation. Smooth out your average purchase price (often near the 200-week moving average, or 200-WMA). Meaning our cost basis will mostly below the spot price, which gives up a huge buffer against volatility.
Each cycle bitcoin HODLers pass more and more of their peers and their peers will really have difficult times to catch up to them, and it becomes quite difficult to catch up to 4 years of prior investing, even if the person might have had some periods in which he had paid more for his bitcoin than the then current price.
I frequently like to point out that if a guy had been accumulating bitcoin for a full cycle, then he is likely to have average bitcoin purchase prices that are fairly similar to the 200-WMA. and an overwhelming majority of the time, the BTC spot pride is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA.. but yeah from time to time, the BTC spot price goes below the 200-WMA... .. and we can continue to accumulate bitcoin for more than 4 years and the 200-WMA continues to go up and up and up and our average bitcoin buy price is getting further and further below the 200-WMA.. which is that we just ongoingly have more cushion in our comfort level that includes confidence that the BTC spot price has lower and lower chances of going below our average BTC buy price.
In short, if we consistently stacking sats over the years, our average purchase price usually trends toward or under the 200-WMA, strengthening your position for the next market uptrend. And as a investor it teaches us to be resilience and be strong, because your breakeven is far below market value, corrections won’t rattle you as easily. As compare to others who don't have the mental discipline, a huge dip creates panics and then pushes the sell button. So don’t chase FOMO, or dwell on regret. There’s no perfect entry; focus on accumulating gradually and it will be very rewarding in the end. Bitcoin rewards the patient. Four years from now, you’ll likely see how far ahead you are of those only just beginning.