That’s a solid and thoughtful way to approach planning—especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin. When building a sensitivity model, you want each scenario to be **plausible**, **distinct**, and **illustrative** of potential futures, not just averages. Here's a range that many in the crypto community might consider *reasonably bounded* for a 10-year outlook, based on historical behavior, macro trends, and risk tolerance:

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### 🚦 **Suggested Range of Bitcoin Annualized Returns Over 10 Years**

| Case | Scenario Description          | Expected Annual Return (r) | Notes                                                                                                                           |
| ---- | ----------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 1    | **Catastrophic**              | **-15%**                   | Regulatory kill shot, protocol failure, better tech displaces BTC, major loss of faith. Capital flight.                         |
| 2    | **Bearish / Stagnation**      | **0%**                     | BTC survives but underperforms inflation; stagnant price action. No new narratives.                                             |
| 3    | **Moderate / Base Case**      | **7–10%**                  | Conservative growth. BTC tracks with growing adoption as store of value or digital gold. Matches or slightly outpaces S\&P 500. |
| 4    | **Bullish**                   | **20–25%**                 | Institutional adoption, favorable macro, increased scarcity narrative. Moderate network growth.                                 |
| 5    | **Moon / God Came to Dinner** | **40–60%**                 | Massive global adoption, BTC becomes reserve asset, extreme capital inflow from fiat. Decade-long bull cycle.                   |

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### 💬 Why These Ranges?

* **Historical Precedent**: BTC has averaged \~60–200% CAGR in past cycles, but this *cannot* be linearly extended.
* **Market Maturation**: As BTC grows, it will likely experience **diminishing returns**—harder to double from \$1T to \$2T than \$100B to \$200B.
* **Macro Factors**: Rate policy, inflation, geopolitical crises, regulation, etc. affect returns.
* **Survivorship Bias**: Many investors forget that there is still non-zero risk of BTC going to zero (tech risk < legal/political risk).
* **Diversification & Hedging**: Negative and 0% return cases remind you to not over-leverage on upside only.

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### 🛠 Modeling Tip:

If your sensitivity model is probabilistic (Monte Carlo, for example), you could assign rough probabilities to each case (e.g., Case 1: 10%, Case 2: 20%, etc.), or simply use them as **scenario bounds** for better clarity in planning.

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Would you like me to help build a simple table, Excel sheet, or Python simulation for this?