Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".
I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).
What range would you use and why?
In 10 years I think the return from 1 t0 5 being 1 the worst and 5 the best is 3. The reason behind is that the growth of Bitcoin is somehow slows down. We can observe it in every 4-year cycle ATH. This is considering that you invest right now (1st time frame). But there is more than this if you happen to invest in the bearish market and time it at near the lowest price (second time frame). If you invest in the stated second time frame then the return would be 5. You can see in the tab below the reason why I stated such remarks.
| Period | Lowest Price | Approximate Range |
| -------------| -----------------------------| --------------------------------- |
| 2013–2017 | \~\$13 (early 2013) | \~\$13 → \~\$19,700 |
| 2017–2021 | \~\$29,800 (mid-2021) | \~\$29,800 → \~\$68,800 |
| 2021–2025 | \~\$15,800 (late-2022) | \~\$15,800 → \~\$123,000 |
Btw, it would be better if you wait for the full cycle on the later year of your holdings to maximize yoour profit, instead of 10 years make it 12 years to accomodate each 4-year cycle.