I don't mind these temporary break-outs, and yeah it is more like a fake break-out rather than a fake ATH.

We cannot deny that nominally we have been having ATHs, and yeah we have been largely trickling "fake" ATHs since before the 2024 halvening.  Remember?  We got an ATH prior to the 2024 halvening.. and we have been having continued ATHs from time to time ever since, and our corrections have not even been that great in the whole scheme of things.

Even if there are a lot of paper bitcoin out there, there is ONLY so much ability to keep the BTC price down, and sure, who is going to know when the diluters of the BTC are going to get caught? 

So, yeah, ongoing trickling ATHs since March 2024, which surely should have had been giving the message to a lot of normies to either be accumulating bitcoin or to be hanging on to their corn if they have already accumulated a lot of it.

Overall it does not seem smart to be trying to trade these kinds of matters since the corrections are not that great and the trend has largely been ongoingly UPpity... Ever since September 2023, the BTC price has largely been ongoingly UPpity, and we could say the same thing going back to November 2022 when the bottom had been reached... Why does anyone consider trading to be smart when the better strategy likely would have had been to ongoingly accumulate, and to front-load as much as possible.  Traders going to catch some of the dips? 

Seems to risky to this here cat, but yeah there have always been traders who maybe from tie to time sold too much too soon, yet hoped to make up for those errors in their other 9 successful trades, and maybe they would have had been way better off to just error on the side of accumulating, and perhaps front-running, in markets like these.  Are we going to get a blow-off top this time? Maybe that is the billion satoshi question?

It is almost like the wet dream of many folks in BTC - a kind of stability and a kind of slow UPpity.. that many of us, including yours truly proclaims is not really what bitcoin does, but bitcoin has largely been doing it for more than a year and a half... and  maybe even 2 years if we want to partially attribute this dynamic to Blackrock and friends publicly starting to say that they were coming around to bitcoin in August/September - ish of 2023.


You make no sense.

Sure it is possible that we are going to get some time spent in this price range... which maybe you have some time to accumulate more bitcoin, and maybe not.

Would you say that $69k served as resistance all the way until late 2024?  Until it didn't?  Would you say that $100k served as resistance in late 2024, early 2025 and then again in mid 2025, until it didn't?

Ultimately nonsense to be considering trying to trade these matters, and it seems that most important thing is to consider whether you have enough bitcoin or not, and if you don't keep on accumulating.  If you get to a point that you have enough or more than enough then you have more options, yet there does seem to be a transition period (perhaps several years) between being in accumulation stage and then getting to a stage where it might start to seem approapriate to start selling..

Given your forum registration date of September 2018, I actually can imagine quite a few scenarios where you could have had gotten to a status of overaccumulation perhaps within the first couple of years of your bitcoin investment time line, and trading is not one of the scenarios in my head, but trading could have had prevented you from getting to overaccumulation when you otherwise could have had gotten there by now... You can plug the numbers into one of the DCA tools (such as this one) and see that a fairly aggressive DCA approach that caused you to front load around 1.5x your annual income into bitcoin within around a 2.5 year period starting from your forum registration date, and you largely would now be in a position of overaccumulation status as long as you hung onto those BTC rather than getting distracted into trading ideas and/or trading practices.


I have a question for you d_eddie.

Have you largely discontinued with your attempts to trade bitcoin?  Or are you still dabbling in such experimenting with trading systems?

In recent times, I have frequently been suggesting to folks to limit any of their trading budget to a maximum of 10% of the size of their bitcoin investment.. without cheating.. and surely there could be some rare folks who are able to learn how to profit more from trading rather than employing more strict buy only strategies...