Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".
I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).
What range would you use and why?
First I'd say, we must consider realty here because its easier to pen down numbers on Bitcoin ROI whereas there are lots of real world factors that could get things messy. At least past circles has shown us that Bitcoin doesn't go steady the way the stocks or bond investment do. I like your model but we should always consider a real case sceneior. The worst that could happen to Bitcoins price should be about -10% a years while the best could go above 50% annually. We cant predict what we will so we just invest and keep our hands crossed.