Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
by
JayJuanGee
on 16/08/2025, 21:20:39 UTC
[Edited Out]Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time,
Of course sir Jay,  we have the right to judge and modify our Bitcoin accumulation approach. Let me back this up with an example

For instance, Mr. A has been acumulating Bitcoin by investing a fixed amount of money every month. Things were going very smooth until he got demoted at work, and this demotion reduced his income. After this incident, he had two choices- either pause his acumulation completely, or adjust the amount he was investing. Mr A choose the smarter approach by reducing the amount instead of stopping his investment entirely. Even though it wasn’t as much as before, he kept on building consistently

Sure, frequently the answer regarding the better ways to approach the matter will relate to the details of the situation, especially since changes are ongoing. 

There could be times in which the income is absolutely similar each month and/or times that income is similar each month, and there might also be wiggle room in each of these two matters.

Even a person who might have a fairly stable situation, he might find that some kind of changes might come, yet he also might decide to dedicate some of his time to causing changes that might come in the future, such as if he might be looking for another job or maybe he is studying  a certain kind of skill (like computer programming), and the speed upon which he gains the skills and maybe spends time "making connections" with certain people might contribute towards his being able to get increases in his income, even though in the short term, he might have to spend time, money and energy to build certain skills that might lead to such income improvement results, and sometimes he might not even know if he invests in a certain direction if he will see improvements to his income in the future, but he still might want to invest into learning such skills.

Now let us compare what happened to Mr A with what Mr. B, who faced the same challenge( he got demoted at work). As a result of this Mr B. decided to stop his Bitcoin investment completely because he couldn’t keep up with his original plan. Over the years, Mr. A, with smaller but consistent contributions, eventually ended up with more stash of Bitcoin than Mr. B.

The lesson to be learnt here is that flexibility doesn’t weaken your plan, it rather strengthen it overtime. A rigid approach may sound good but life doesn’t always go out as we planned it to be. That is why being able to adjust your plan while staying committed is what makes your Bitcoin accumulation journey sustainable in the long run.

We agree that being persistent and continuing to invest is likely a better decision, yet guys will sometimes not realize the impact of what they are doing, and so they might not even really feel any large difference for 4-6 years later, and then by the time that they realize that they had taken a less preferred (less profitable) path, it will be way too late to go back and do the situation over, so sometimes even a $10 to $50 per week contribution over 4-6 years might end up paying off, even if previously the guy  had been able to invest $100 per week, and so sometimes even small amounts compound upon themselves.

I had a situation in which I was investing into bitcoin between late 2013 and early 2015 and the BTC prices largely went down from around $1,100 in late 2013 to around $250 through much of 2015.

I had been investing at higher prices so by the time early 2015 came, I had an average cost per BTC that were right around $550, but the then prices were right around $250.  I had some cashflow problems with income going down and some needs to cut expenses based on the income going down, so there were several months that I could not buy any bitcoin at all, even though the BTC prices were generally low, but at the same time, I did not have enough discretionary income in order to justify buying bitcoin, so I figured out a plan that as my income started to normalize, any times that i received some extra income, then I would split it in half.  Half of it would be used to buy bitcoin and the other half would be used to put in my various expected expenses.l  So then there were a few months of complete dry period, then a few months of scattered buy and then a few months were I was again able to buy more regularly... so that was a tough period, yet you can imagine during that period in 2015, if I had a situation where an additional $100 came in, and then I decided to buy $50 of bitcoin, I would get 0.2 BTC for that $50, and so the amounts that I put in were seemingly small, but they ended up having really great payoffs further down the road... even though at the time, I considered that my income and my expenses were messed up for more than half of 2015... The second half of 2015 was more normalized but still with a bit more tightness than what had existed prior to January 2015.

During that time, there were quite a few people who were suggesting that I sell what I had rather than continuing to buy more BTC, even though the buy amounts were not a lot and they were a bit scattered.

Of course, we cannot go back to 2015, yet there were similar kind of dynamics between 2018 and 2020 in which the BTC price spent a lot of time between $5k and $9k, and even though there was a lot of price variation even beyond those prices, a lot of bitcoin could have been accumulated between the $5k and $9k range.  Similar in 2022 and 2023, there was a lot of time that the BTC price spent between $17k and $35k.. and yeah better to have been able to buy cheaper, yet even the $35k prices are not seeming too bad right now, if they were to ever be possible again.

Right now I am getting the sense that sub $75k will never happen again, even though I cannot be sure, and it is even possible that sub $112k will never be seen again... so even between mid-November 2024 to June 2025 we spent quite a bit of time between $85k and $106k, which I get the sense that those would have been good prices to buy bitcoin, yet there were a decent number of folks selling between $85k and $106k in that late 2024 to mid-2025 time period... and yeah history has not been written yet, so it is possible that we could return to that area, yet it is not even close to guaranteed that such return will happen.

Ongoingly, we can ONLY deal with what is in front of us, and if we are not regularly buying, then we might end up not being able to stack as much as we could have had stacked during earlier periods.