Scenario #2: Possible breakout, and it might go down more below $106k-$108k, and it might bounce near the anchored VWAP.
Reason: RSI is not oversold yet, and there is no divergence signal yet.
Take note: This is not a financial advice; don't use this analysis to risk your capital. This is my own analysis; you can correct me if I am wrong.
I will choose scenario 2 because of the JP speech at 22 August can dump the market, even if the FOMC turn out to be good today, and market bounces back from the current price but the speech can bring bad impact to the price and considering the already dump it can dump more and I also think the ranges you gave from $106k to $108k are possible here or maybe it can go even lower.
This chart is very clear to me, and I am very positive on a dump to $105k as you mentioned, it is not financial advice it is just what I think of the market, but maybe after 22 August market makes a good pattern and we will see it retest its ATH again.