Some folks just like to monitor the market because they are excited about bitcoin and they might have had been buying and holding bitcoin for one or two cycles or more, and maybe even if they are done accumulating bitcoin, they still like to monitor the bitcoin market, so if they had spent two cycles and they accumulated more than 10 bitcoin then they can see that the spot price of their holdings is changing quite radically.  

Let's say that the guy had an income of about $50k per year, and he had been investing $160 per week between November 2016 and November 2024  - so that was fairly aggressive buying into bitcoin for two whole cycles which cost him nearly $67k (a little more than 1 year of his income) yet he was able to accumulate 10 BTC with that amount.

This hypothetical guy might monitor the size of his bitcoin stash in light of the 200-WMA, which is generally going up, so that if he measures his wealth in terms of the 200-WMA, he may see that the 200-WMA is continuing to go up and up and up, whether that is daily or even weekly monitoring of such, so he might put the quantity of his 10 bitcoin into such a tool that monitors the 200WMA in light of the size of his BTC and he can see how the value of his BTC changes over time (whether he is continuing to add to his stash or not.. and maybe he is even withdrawing from his stash), and sure if his quantity of bitcoin is getting larger, that might be even better for his getting excited about what his bitcoin can do for him and he is monitoring it on a regular basis, so even if this hypothetical guy has 10 BTC, he might be considering that once the 200-WMA gets to $800k, then he is going to start to withdraw $80k per year from his bitcoin stash and to start to live off of it in perpetuity at that rate (even potentially giving himself a 7% raise in dollars each year).  

Right now, the 10 BTC is ONLY showing an ability to withdraw $51.6k per year, so the guy feels that he is still a bit of a distance from reaching his goal to be able to have an income of $80k per year.   He can see that he is close to what he considers his "overaccumulation status" goal (but still not quite to the place that he wants to be), and accordingly, by looking at my 200-WMA prediction table, he can see that it may well take close to another 9-12-ish months for his 10 BTC to reach the status of being able to support a $80k per year income.. so he watches the BTC price and the 200-WMA on a fairly regular basis (perhaps daily) to see how his numbers are continuing to unfold, and even my future 200-WMA prediction tool shows that by mid 2026, less than 10 should be enough to support an $80k per year income, yet we still have to be cautious in terms of prematurely concluding our overaccumulation status and the specifics of what it can do, even though we see that if push comes to shove, and if we were to lose our job right now at this moment, or if we were to be put into a position that we needed to live off or our 10 BTC from here on out and to start to withdraw from from our 10 BTC with sustainable methods, then right now it would support a $51.6k income.

Since right now the 10 BTC of this hypothetical person can safely and perpetually support an income of $51.6k per year, if this particular guy is specifically not wanting to start his sustainable bitcoin withdrawal strategy at this point in time and not until his bitcoin 200-WMA value actually crosses over his $80k per year threshold requirement, then those are the kinds of requirements that guys might create for themselves and might even contribute to their watching the BTC price and/or the 200-WMA on a daily and/or weekly basis in order to see their progress and/or their getting closer and closer to their goal. .and the monitoring of the status might even inspire the guy to take other actions to make sure that his BTC are safe and that he has channels upon which he is going to be able to start to cash out his bitcoin at the $80k per year rate once he gets started.. tentatively within a year or so. if everything (especially the 200-WMA) continues to go in the direction as planned).. .

Another thing that the guy could do is to make sure that the quantity of 10 bitcoin that he currently has can sustain an $80k per year income, but his plan is to ONLY start to withdraw at $65k per year and to allow the other $15k to continue to fold over into his bitcoin investment,  so that maybe in one to two years after he had started his sustainable withdrawal practices, he could potentially give himself a raise up to $75k or even up to $90k. per year depending on how the numbers look at that time, yet he is wiling to start out living with a smaller amount of a $65k-ish per year income, and let his bitcoin investment continue to compound upon itself during the time that he is purposefully choosing to withdraw at the lower rate and to likely cause his overaccumulation status to get larger and larger and larger, even while he is already sustainably withdrawing from his bitcoin stash at a lower income rate (of $65k) than his bitcoin would perpetually support (which is $80k).

These kinds of monitoring can be fun and stressful at the same time, since there likely would be some learning involved if a person passes from one stage in which he had been ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, possibly for a couple of cycles.


It can take a long time to sink in that bitcoin is amongst the best (if not the best) place to be, and I recall my first 3 years investing into bitcoin between late 2013 and late 2016, I was not in profits, yet by early 2016, I started to become more and more confident because the momentum of bitcoin was largely heading up, yet there can be ongoing fear that even if our BTC holdings are barely negative or maybe close to being flat (and barely in profits) that the prices might crash back down and put our holdings back into the negative.  Between late 2013 to late 2015 I had brought my average cost per BTC down from $1k to around $500, yet the BTC price spent a lot of time in the lower $400s between November 2015 and May 2016.. .but then it ran up to $700 and the crashed back to $500 and slowly recovered while so many folks were claiming bitcoin to be dead based on the then Bitfinex hack of 119k bitcoin...and Bitfinex was a big exchange at that time in late 2016...

Anyhow, even if BTC prices bring our holdings back in profits, guys can still get scared out of their holdings because they want to lock in profits, even if it might be relatively small amounts of profits, such as selling when the price reached $800-ish.. .. but then how much would have had been lost when the BTC price went from $800 to $19,666 in 2017, and even though it corrected back down to $3,124 at some point in November 2018, there can still be a lot of scariness for some people to have difficulties handling such volatility.

And it is one thing to actually get in, and then another thing to mostly stay in through the various ups and downs and figure out some system in which you may well be mostly staying in rather than overly cashing out, which some people want to get the amount that they invested out, which also can undermine their holdings.

Let's say a guy spent 3 years from late 2013 to late 2016 investing about $100 per week into bitcoin, and so he had invested $16k and perhaps he accumulated close to 40 BTC, yet he screwed up a few times, so he ONLY hade around 20 BTC.. yet still 20 BTC is still pretty good, even if he might have had made several screw ups.  He might still not know how to manage the 20 BTC that he has.  In late 2016, they are valued right around $20k, but then they go up to close to $400k in late 2017, but then in late 2018 they correct back down to  around $65k, yet they spend most of the time in stable areas of $140k-ish..

So the guy should be happy, and maybe even better off to continue to accumulate bitcoin during 2018, 2019, and 2020 when BTC prices were bouncing all over the place, but they were still mostly staying below $10k... so he could have continued buying bitcoin at $100 per week, learning about bitcoin, learning to store and safeguard his bitcoin and putting himself into even a better position, yet people frequently won't know how to manage their finances, and they get tempted to spend rather than continuing to build in order to make sure that they get to a place of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

I cannot really say how guys can get into a better kind of mindset in regards to their bitcoin and to realize that it can take time to both build the bitcoin investment but also time to manage it so that not too many mistakes are made, and even people who entered into bitcoin early could still have a lot of mistakes, but at the same time learning from their mistakes so that they do not end up losing everything or maybe to make sure that they are mostly building their bitcoin rather than depleting whatever bitcoin that they had accumulated.


We likely have to figure out how to apportion into the various assets if we want to keep other assets besides bitcoin and cash.


Many folks have criticized bitcoin because it does not earn any dividend, especially if we are not giving it to some third party who is promising to give us a dividend on our bitcoin.

We still likely can learn how to get to a point of overaccumulation of our bitcoin where we do not necessarily need to get a dividend in order to be able to sustainably withdraw from our bitcoin stash at a rate that is within our choosing and without having to custody our bitcoin with any third parties.


Regular people don't really know, and even though self-custody can be easy to learn, there still are some complications and/or personal responsibilities to protect our stash without screwing it up.. including questions of passing it down in the case that something happens to us.  There is also misinformation in terms of understanding what bitcoin is as compared with various cryptos and some of them get bad names and the whole space is sometimes associated with bitcoin, so people might get confused about advantages and disadvantages of each, and they might not even know about bitcoin's self-sovereignty thesis and/or its sound money thesis, so they might not believe those kinds of stories about bitcoin, even if they were to hear about them.  Those kinds of stories can just seem wishful rather than realities, since no one can really imagine an actual currency that governments cannot control, and they may well even get confused about the US government's recent involvement in terms of trying to suss out the extent to which the US government is controlling (or not controlling) bitcoin.


There are likely going to be a lot of guys who sold decent chunks of their BTC at or around $100k and who are likely going to have regrets for those sales.  Sure maybe some of them bought some back during the dip down to $75k-ish, yet I have my doubts.

I have no problem with shaving off some coins here and there on the way up so that you do not sell too many, and guys who have been in bitcoin for a long time should already have systems to manage their coins and maybe sell a bit of their bitcoin at various places as the BTC price continues to go up and will likely continue to go up for quite some time, if not forever.


Even better to stay in bitcoin 4-10 years or longer.

Sure the first couple of years can seem enticing, yet it is going to be difficult to buy bitcoin in the future for the prices that were available in the past two years, whether a guy front loaded or just continued to buy on a regular basis through out the last two years.

Front loading would have had been better, yet we cannot go back and redo the past 2 years, we can only live with the result and hope that we are not too short-sighted as to consider that cashing out would be a good idea... but guys do all kinds of dumb shit, especially in the realm of either selling too many coins too early and/or failing/refusing to continue to accumulate bitcoin through a whole cycle or  perhaps even two or more cycles.. which would be 8 years of accumulating bitcoin, which truly has good chances to put many folks in decent places, especially if they already have two years of accumulating under their belt..


I doubt that all of what you describe are needed before getting started investing into bitcoin.

Sure a person likely needs to have an ability to learn and an ability to do 9th grade math... and perhaps able to learn some higher math, even though math skills are not super high in bitcoin, just an ability to learn those kinds of things.  

I think that we talked about this before, and there are likely only a few percentage of the population, such as less than 3% who might not be capable of investing into bitcoin due to their lack of abilities to learn (low  IQ), so there are abilities to learn as long as we are not mentally disabled. and so personally I am going to presume that an overwhelming majority of adults are capable to get started in bitcoin as long as they have discretionary funds, which means that they are likely capable of managing their own finances and figuring things out.

Sure, there are likely all kinds of people who are crazy due to their finances, yet if they are able to put their finances in a better order and to utiilize bitcoin as a tool to help them to get to a better place, then as long as they have discretionary funds they can get started and they can figure shit out... Some people are in a worse situation than others, yet if they are not mentally retarded they can figure shit out.  They do not have to resolve all of their financial and/or psychological problems prior to getting started in bitcoin, and it could even be the case that if they figure out how to focus on bitcoin and to prioritize bitcoin (without over doing it), then they may well continue to improve their situation little by little by little to put themselves into a better psychological situation.

I frequently like to proclaim that our psychology will be improved if we can improve our finances, so sometimes we might need to figure out ways to accomplish an improvement in our finances, and we might not be in a good place either financially or psychologically prior to starting in bitcoin, yet there are degrees to craziness and mental instability, so I am not going to presume that any adult is beyond a place of being able to cope and to fix their shit, and each person has to figure out the extent to which he is too far gone to be able to get started in bitcoin, yet I doubt that we can presume that the mere fact that a person has psychological problems (or mental stability problems) that the person is not able to get started investing in bitcoin.  They have to figure out their own limitations and the extent to which they are stable enough to get started and/or able to focus on improving their situation, even if they are mere starting out with $10 or $100 per week.  Their investing into bitcoin may well help to motivate them to learn about how to budget so that they can continue to buy bitcoin each of the upcoming weeks.

By the way, Ruttoshi, I will concede to you that some folks who are extremely unorganized and spontaneously doing things without thinking, they may need to figure out a way to spend some time and to organize themselves - maybe 1-2 hours before getting started and maybe at least a couple of hours every week, and yeah, if they are not spending enough time making sure that they are not overdoing their investment into bitcoin, then they are not going to make their situation better, they will end up making themselves worse, yet I am still not going to presume merely because a person happens to be mentally unstable that they are not able to figure out how to focus, even within their mental instability and to figure out how to get started investing into bitcoin and to figure out that bitcoin is an investment rather than a trade, so yeah, a lot of folks may well have gambling problems (I just looked it up it is a few percentages 0f the adult population), yet I am not going to presume that they cannot get their shit together and to start investing into bitcoin merely based on a description that they are mentally unstable. Do they have a discretionary income or not?  Are they going to spend some time trying to make sure that they are not spending beyond their means or not?  We are not going to be able to figure out on the face of the matter if they are going to be able to handle the matter, yet I am still not going to presume that there is a requirement for someone to be mentally stable to invest into bitcoin as long as they have a discretionary income, and I am going to presume that there is something greater than a 90% chance, perhaps even 97% chance that they are not mentally retarded.;.so they should be able to get started.

If they are a kid that might be another story since kids have some impulse control issues, yet if the kid has a discretionary income  and they are not retarded they probably have enough skills to get started, even if they might need to work on improving their skills and their impulse control issues so that they do not devolve into gambling rather than investing.


Surely in regards to getting into bitcoin, the earlier the better,  yet if someone is still not in bitcoin after several years, 5 or more years, they will be forced to figure out if they are going to get into bitcoin at that time. So there is likely going to continue to be a rolling cascade of regret from people about not getting into bitcoin earlier, so yeah, it would be helpful if people figure it out earlier rather than later and get started investing in bitcoin, yet they come when they come.. .. and there is the expression that bitcoin get into bitcoin at the time that they deserve.. .. and so yeah there is a bit of personal responsibility to figure it out earlier rather than later, but it could be difficult to rush someone who is not ready.