Interesting. I've searched that image on Google to know a bit more about this volatility measure but I've not found it. Is it yearly volatility perhaps? If you have the source I'd be grateful

The Bitbo index takes the standard deviation of 30 days and thus is much lower (roughly 1-3% with decreasing trend).

BTW I agree with your conclusion. In addition, there is increased liquidity (measured in purchasing power, not BTC), and weak hands are probably not that dominant as before, as they have been constantly "proven wrong" if they sold at or near the bottom of the cycles.

In the past I looked for extreme bullish moves, like +10-15% in a single day, often followed by more bullish days, and increased volatility near the top. However, in 2021 this already didn't work that good, as we didn't see that much euphoria near the bull market top. The early 2021 "fake top" had more of that actually than the "real top" in late 2021.

A quite good indicator, although "ex post", seems to be an altcoin crash of -10-15% and more in nearly all coins. This imo indicates waning retailer interest. Bitcoin often recovers a bit after that crash, and that's a good time to sell often if you want to ride the waves. However, these crashes do not necessarily indicate an extreme bear market like the one of 2022, it can also be an intermediate pullback of 25-30% like in mid-2024. So while it's not bad to take some profit then, I would keep DCAs running