I suppose that Rogoff has been ongoingly considering that he is correct about bitcoin, so it is just a matter of time for his DOWNity thesis to play out. 

Many folks with way lower intelligence had likely already knew that he was likely wrong in 2018, even though we might not have had a lot of confidence in regards to how long it might have had taken to go from $6k-ish (in 2018) to supra $100k - and surely some of us were expecting $100k in 2021, but then others might have been more open to a cycle or two, yet even those of us expecting up are not completely familiar with the various price mechanisms and/or the various down scenarios, including possible governmental interventions.

His new scenario might need to be $1k before $1 million.. .hahahahaha

And he will have to keep moving it up, so then the next one after that will be $10k before $10 million. and he will continue to be wrong.. so at a certain point, he might have to learn why bitcoin is going up rather than his likely not sufficiently understanding it, even while he believes that he sufficiently understands it.

At some point, he could end up being correct, yet he seems to be overly down-playing more likely scenarios, so even perhaps his base case scenario ends up being way more incorrect than others who have not studied as much economics as he has.

Some of us are even ongoingly skeptical of a lot of mainstream economists in regards to their being wedded to Modern Monetary Theory and Keynesian ideas about abilities to control economies through printing of money, debt and interest rates rather than attempting to adequately account for sound money principles within Austrian school of thought ideas.  Sometimes it sems that soe folks are too smart for their own good, and likely each of us have discovered at some later point in life in which we realized that we had wrong ideas and we felt foolish for our having had the wrong ideas and/or the wrong framework... yet it still can be tough for any of us to give up on our framework so we frequently will try to find a way to continue to be able to use many aspects of our already existing framework when we are learning about new things.


Hahahahahaha

Maybe you are too nice?

And too subtle?

Why not just call him a plagiarizer who is just making shit up?

I wonder if anyone has reported him, yet?


Surely, the idea sounds provocative, but there is likely a need to emphasize the "sometimes" part of the guidance, since as a base practice, on a sufficiently large number of cases, doing the "stupidest thing that you can think of" will tend to not end well, and likely at some point soon in the future result in death and/or other forms of permanent (and/or irreversible) injury.


That is a subtle enough criticism.

 


I had not seen that thread. Interesting.  I will read it more closely, soon.^tm


Given your forum registration of right around a year and a half, I have a hard time imaging almost any scenario that you wouldn't still be accumulating bitcoin, unless you greatly front loaded your bitcoin investment in the $50ks and $60ks or if you might have had gotten into bitcoin prior to your forum registration date.

I suppose another possibility is that you are a trader rather than an investor who is running the risk of not accumulating enough, wrongly using leverage and/or selling too much too soon.

Ultimately, to each their own  I imagine even the investors who are still in their earliest of stages (first year or two) are likely going to out perform the traders, especially if we look 2 to 3 cycles in the future, and sure if you are elderly and/or you have health concerns, then maybe it might be valid to have a bitcoin investment time line that might be less than two full cycles.  Perhaps? perhaps?


I frequently consider that buying more is a better therapy than HODL, especially for guys in their earliest times of accumulation, and many times a guy might need more than a whole cycle to accumulate, unless he is able to reallocate from other investments that he might have had prior to coming into bitcoin.

But yeah at some point guys might conclude that they have enough and/or more than enough bitcoin, so HODL would many times be better then selling.. but if a guy had prematurely concluded that he has enough of more than enough BTC, then it could take a bit of time, maybe even a whole cycle before he can transition from HODL and to a point where starting to sell some might be acceptable. YMMV


A reasonable presumption is that the BTC price is generally sloping upwards, yet at the same time in the short term, even within a 4 year period, it can be all over the place, which usually is why part of the proposal is that anyone getting into bitcoin should have at minimum a 4-10 year timeline, even though a longer timeline still does not guarantee UPpity, even though many of us likely have reasonable presumptions that the odds are pretty good that our BTC price slope is going to continue to be upwards, even if there might be quite a few battles along the way contribute to its not being up in the short term or even UP in a steady kind of way.  One of the challenges, as you suggested, of overly paying attention to short-to-medium term spot prices.