Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
by
Tonimez
on 22/08/2025, 06:23:17 UTC
[Edited out]

Many of us can see how it can be so tempting to cash out during circumstances that we should probably just continue to buy.. and to make it through our first cycle or two of buying.. .. so then once we get through our buying period, we still might have another period of perhaps 4 years where we are not buying nor selling, and then at some point later down the road we might transition into selling some of our stash in a kind of streaming way. 
You're right sir. Anyone who sells his bitcoin in every market price provocation will certainly regret the next moment after seeing the price going up again and he can be seen as a panic seller. To be on a safe side, provided that you are still in active service and/or still has a sustainable source of wellbeing, it is better to make your first holding target period at 4 years. This will allow you most especially among the non regular buyers who either bought a lump-sum or a dip just to have a taste of bitcoin. Setting up a 4 years holding period would initially allow you make the best out of it and save you the stress of getting glued to the chart.  I know of some folks who's initial plan for bitcoin was just to own it, to have a story to tell about bitcoin and to feel among or above his folks just by owning bitcoin. If someone successfully holds for 4 years, he gets attached to the bitcoin and would want to hold further and if he had or hadn't been adding more bitcoin to his bitcoin stash, he would have seen more reasons to do so and he would be doing it convincingly.

The exact ways of dealing with our BTC holdings would depend on a variety of circumstances, including if a guy is continuing to work or maybe he is cutting back on his work or changing kinds of work and maybe anticipating transitioning into either living off his bitcoin or partially living off his bitcoin once enough time had passed that he is feeling good about his holdings and that he is not going to damage himself by starting to draw from his BTC holdings.
Yeah sure, years of Activeness contributes to individual ways of dealing with bitcoin in most cases even though others would not still invest in bitcoin no matter how long he still has in service. Some circumstances of cutting down on his work and/or transitioning to another work is a crucial decision making period whereby some folks who have low shock absorbance sometimes dip hands in their bitcoin in order to sustain the period until after the transition period and this is quite difficult to handle by low income Earners except with high discipline and cashflow management.

[edited out]
So I guess people would get an idea about growth of Bitcoin each year since 2010 https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-yearly-returns-2009-to-2025-chart

Those stats shows that Bitcoin became more great asset as many years pass by although there's a bear situation happen I guess that time would be a good time to accumulate more Bitcoin if there's situation like that happen.

Looking for quick gains is risky and unsustainable, we see lots of people fall down or got broke because they fall from scams. So better for people to avoid looking such quick rich scheme and better pay more attention on accumulating more Bitcoins.

The idea is correct including the ideas about how to deal with the years that the price seems negative rather than positive.  We are not going to know in advance if the year is going to be negative or positive, even though we have seemed to have 3 years up and 1 year down and then repeating the same pattern.. at least so far.   

Another thing is that of course from any chart there is a starting reference time that is selected, so in that above linked chart, it is going by the calendar years, which may or may not be a good measuring point for any particular individual to get synchronized with the calendar year versus his own start year.   It may be better to start in a year that the BTC price is either going down or it is largely flat versus when it is going up, and it is not clear if waiting is a good choice either.. especially for someone without coins and he is not going to really know where he is at in terms of whether the bitcoin price is going to go up, down or sideways.
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I have also thought about how perfectly fixed the 4 year cycle has been sustaining and it's very incredibly right. Starting from it's launch in 2009 down to this period, every 4th year has always been a bump. If newbies to bitcoin investment understand this chart and accept the flexibility of bitcoin market, they would have no choice than trust the investment they have chosen. 2013, 2017,2021 and 2025 amounts to 4 bitcoin cycles and all has been proven sustainable. Bitcoin gains more popularity daily and it's acceptance keeps increasing everyday. If a person should be intentional about holding his bitcoin through many cycles, he would also have the opportunity to witness an exponential increase in price and profit.

having a timeline in bitcoin that is 4 years or less is trading not investing.
This is apt and obvious. Some people deceive themselves to be investors just by holding bitcoin for 2 years or 3 years which they have been waiting for a favourable market condition to do away with their bitcoin stash. Holding bitcoin through on cycle of 4 years is not enough to call a person a Bitcoin investor. Let's see a scenario of the real estate investors; they mostly acquire lands in a remote place with a higher potential of seeing developing in at least 10 years time. This they acquire and abandon patiently with their initial holding (abandoning) time of 10 years during which they won't build on the land. After this period, the remote place is becoming more developed, the company either starts building projects on the land with a target of another 5 years or more to get the whole structures raised which expecting further developments. This allows them meet opportunities in the least expected places just by trusting that development would occur in the area. Even though sometimes, our prediction is not always perfect and disappointment may set in when the hope is raised so much. This same principle could be helpful in bitcoin holding.

Having a time line of 4-10 years is presumptively short term investing.. as long as the reasons of getting out might be age or health.. otherwise we might consider 4-10 years as trading too, especially if the person gets in to bitcoin and then sells all of his bitcoin rather than having a longer term plan.

We can quibble about these terms.. yet it might not be important... guys can do what they want, but sometimes they think they are investing when they are really trading .. like long term trading rather than short term trading.
You're right your description, as a bitcoin investor who is still active in service, 4-10 years holding would be too short to call your self and investor. This brings back the idea of making bitcoin your retirement plan instead of gambling away your opportunities in 10 years time. Majority of the people coming into bitcoin investment now are young enough to hold bitcoin for the next 20 years which is a probable 5 cycles of bitcoin which is definitely going to be very bullish at last. This will allow you plan for your future, when neither government nor individuals care about you not paying you a dime. Bitcoin is not to be gambled if you understand what the future holds and shun panicking in every little dip or market corrections.

It is difficult to project exactly into the future, but if we look at the 200-WMA, we will see that it is around $51.7k right now, so a guy who invested into bitcoin at a steady rate over 4 years would have an average cost per BTC that is right around the same as the 200-WMA.  Of course the longer he is in, it is quite likely that the 200-WMA will continue to rise faster than his average cost per BTC.. .. and we can go back to some DCA calculators and verify that a guy who invested over the past 8 years would likely have an average cost per BTC that is below $14k.  So time investing helps, but also attempting to be somewhat aggressive in the earlier years of investing likely helps somewhat too.
This is very crucial for every beginner to seize every opportunity to buy bitcoin aggressively especially in the early days of investing in bitcoin. This would allow him but at prices where his cumulative price per bitcoin would still be more reduced. But this is not a perfect condition too as more bear market may also arise somewhere between the years even lower than the starting price. Seizing every opportunity and understanding that every bear market is a buy buy opportunity would help every investor to balance up the price per bitcoin and still allow for higher profits. Aggressive buys is a very necessary steps to achieving bitcoin accumulation with a lower price too but you must not overdo it at any point in order not to risk all your bitcoin stash.