Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin Too Big to Die? Effect of "strategic reserves" on bear markets
by
d5000
on 23/08/2025, 01:24:05 UTC
This is probably the prevailing thought right now. It will only be different if these huge names backing Bitcoin themselves are the ones dumping.
And imo if some thought is too "prevailing" or popular this could generate a certain risk: if contrarian traders (think those who dumped Terra/Luna and BTC when they were aware of the vulnerabilities of their algorithm) see a chance to bring one of the treasury companies into problems, then this could generate such a "huge name dump" via a chain reaction. I consider this relatively unlikely but not impossible: say they attack the weakest of the treasury companies while also shorting BTC, and then distributing the narrative that "Bitcoin Treasuries don't work", bringing also bigger treasury companies into problems (maybe not Saylor but the second tier).

Accordingly, I don't think volatility will disappear because it is the main factor in the game - it brings profit and at the same time sends the message that Bitcoin is not suitable as a currency.
Volatility "disappearing" is also not what I expect. And yes, the "riding the waves" pattern, be it short terme spikes or our beloved 4-year-cycle, is still prevailing among Bitcoin traders I think. But I expect that the ups and downs could become simply less extreme if there is less potential to panic because you fear to "lose everything" when "Bitcoin goes to zero".

But still with 50% of the current volatility there would be enough profit to be made with trading.