Again, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core inflation rate looks upward to me, which was rekindled in March 2025. Is this the right time to cut the rate?
I agree with you; inflation in the U.S. is on the rise and will likely only accelerate. Trump will get his rate cut anyway, especially since Powell is set to leave his position in 2026. Plus, all decisions at the Fed are collegial, and the president has already started to go after regional Fed bankers—some have been replaced, and others are being pushed for early retirement.
Interestingly, we recently saw a similar situation in Turkey, where the president dictated a rate cut during a period of rising inflation. We can all see how that ended for the country.
From a different perspective, an economic downturn in the U.S. would actually have a positive emotional effect on the rest of the world. Such a reset, in the form of a severe economic crisis, can be quite beneficial.