How could whatever Saylor/MSTR is doing be a surprise if he is announcing the matter a day earlier, within a weekly pattern in which Saylor/MSTR is pretty much buying BTC constantly and announcing their buys on more or less a weekly basis? like surprise clockwork?
Good point. The only surprise could come if he announces a big buy today, after the small buys of the last two weeks, but not because of Sunday's announcement.
Yeah.. on average..
But we already know that it is not true that bitcoin goes up 30% every year, and even the 200-WMA has had some historical years of ONLY going up 20% - yet at the same time, the average has been quite a bit greater than 30% to 40% per year, especially if taking several years at a time an then averaging them out (an average of an average)
At least his prediction today is more realistic than the ones I remember from the beginning, when he was talking about a 200% annual return. The current one makes more sense because it is based on the fact that, as the market cap and price have increased significantly, the average annual return will tend to decrease, and within that 30% there may be years, especially in the near future, when there is a 50 or 60% annual return, some years in negative territory, but volatility will tend to moderate over time, both positive and negative, tending towards that 30% average.
Although, as the history of bitcoin has shown us many times with predictions that have been made, he could be wrong, but at least his reasoning is quite logical.