Prediction can sometimes favor you or fail you, because trading is also a game of luck and there's no one person that is perfect in prediction, just that when you are favored, it looks like you're the champion but I tell you that no champions forever.
Crypto trading is prediction I agree with you, but the way you are putting your statement makes it looks like betting or gambling because you said it is a game of luck which means you are not sure of what you trading and you don’t trust your analysis that is why you called it a game of luck.
Experience traders do lose money, but they are always certain of their analysis which do usually becomes profitable because they do take their time to analyze the market and also make sure the apply all the necessary steps to minimize risk before they go into trading, and they hardly lose woefully like newbie traders that just go into trading without any knowledge; they are the main gamblers because they are just trading for luck.