Post
Topic
Board Economics
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Everything you wanted to know about Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
by
paxmao
on 26/08/2025, 09:36:41 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
[edited out]
Mostly agree. There's too many people "saying" when the right strategy with bitcoin is "doing" and then "not doing anything". It is so counter-intuitive and so against what most of us have been told - "you need to work hard to succeed", "you need to be active", "you need to stay on top"...

An bitcoin is just about not doing anything - well, not exactly - it is about learning and then having the mental strength to do absolutely nothing (AKA hodling).

Yeah, but we have to accumulate first and get to a point that we have enough bitcoin before holding becomes really meaningful.

Sure, another thing is that we can start out with a small amount and then just hold until that small amount becomes a large amount, yet I personally believe that a better strategy is to continue to buy, at least in our earlier years, perhaps a whole cycle or two, and then once we spent a cycle or two accumulating, then after that we can mostly hold and perhaps even spend from our bitcoin from time to time without worrying about when we are spending or how much we are spending.

Perhaps an exception to the idea of continuing to buy applies to those who are able to front load their bitcoin investment, yet my presumption is that an overwhelming majority of normal people are not going to either be in a position that they are able to front load their investment into bitcoin, and even if they might be able to front load their investment into bitcoin, they are mostly not going to be willing to, which is another justification for ongoing buying through DCA rather than just buying and sitting on our hands. 

Ongoing buying also reinforces the idea and is likely superior to not doing anything, even though I would still agree that just holding also works, but it is not as good as ongoing buying, even though ongoing buying may well end up increasing our costs  per BTC, but we will end up with way more BTC to give us more options and cause us to reach overaccumulation status faster.  ONce we are at overaccumulation status, then we surely have more options to buy or sell and perhaps try to stay in overaccumualtion status by not selling to many at any given time.

On the DCA thing... it seems that it is now frequently mentioned, but this exists since forever. It is usually called temporal diversification and you can do it also in the stock market. Diversification can be buying several assets to protect yourself agains... perhaps your own ignorace, imperfect information or simple bad luck.

Temporal diversification (such as DCA or other automated investing systems) is to protect you from your ignorance about when is the optimal moment to buy - clearly my case and honestly the case of most. I would advise this to any normie (I am perhaps a normie to some extent).

DCA is only deferring the buying of bitcoin when it is done when a person already has a lump sum of money available.

Many times DCA is a means to buy as much bitcoin as we are able to buy as the money comes in.. We do not have the money in advance or to use our  income to buy bitcoin prior to it coming in, and so therefore many of us will be forced into DCA because we largely are ONLY able to buy bitcoin as our money comes in.. which can take years and years and years before it starts to add up to any meaningful amount.

Regarding diversification, I doubt that diversification is needed at the beginning of a bitcoin investment and may well not be needed for several years into a persons bitcoin investment. and surely the most effective means of offsetting risk is to buy within a persons discretionary funds  and to strive to maintain back up funds that are sufficient to protect from times in which income might be lower than expected and/or expenses are higher than expected.    Of course, if a person has doubts about investing into bitcoin, then they can choose some other investments and hope that they are not overly diluting their bitcoin investment due to their choice to put time, energy and value into some other assets, and surely if a person has more discretionary funds then it might make more sense as compared with someone who at most may only be able to invest $10 to $100 per week into bitcoin.   

What follows is for educational purposes and not investment advice. I am not an investment advisor.

This you have described is the voice of reason. Only what you can afford to loose, only as funds are available and with a long term perspective. This is absolutely reasonable and according to the investment advice you will get if you approach a knoledgeable advisor.

I recommend doing the opposite excercise as well, even if it is just a desk-top excercise. Ask yourself:

a) What amount of bitcoin do I need to make a substantive change in my life - whatever that is for you.
b) How fast do I want to reach those objectives and what are the strategies that will take me there (and which are NOT going to take me there).

You manage to save 100USD a month, you invest that in bitcoin. Ask yourself - when will you have (guess) enough so that bitcoin has made an impact in your life? When will you move from the 50% of  top wealth, to the 10% of the people and when to the 1% (or if you are ambitious, to the 1% of the 1%)?

Is 100 USD a month the answer or it will simply not make a substantial difference in the time you have left to live or live healthy or be young? It may be hard to swallow, but it may simply not be enough if you want to be financially independent or otherwise reach the wealth you would like at 30 or at 40.

What makes a difference to you? 1 million, 10 million? What do you need to get there = do the regression analysis. I am going to put it simple for those out there who want it in a spoon and simplified:

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/investment-calculator.php use "required contributions".

Future Account Value= Your target figure that would make a difference to you like... 1 000 000 USD.
Investment amount = what you have already in bitcoin or you would purchase today in USD. I will put zero.
Number of years = your ideal time to reach your target figure. I will put 20 years (you put whatever you want).
I will put yearly purchase and a bitcoin return of 20% annually.

If comes out you need to invest more than 5000 a year for 20 years. So, unless things go exceptionally well or you are willing to wait a long time, you DO need to make an investing effort of some kind.

Try some scenarios there and have a look at what impact you should expect.

And now question yourself: I follow the "invest with caution and only what you can afford to loose". What can I afford to loose? What is the significance of the impact of loosing it? Is it anything except what I strictly need for food and shelter? Is it anything except what I need to continue my life as it is until I drop dead? Do I "need" a car? Do I "need" to keep up with the neighbourg's expese? Do I "need" cool clothing? Do I "need" that club membership?

I guess the end question is what are you daring to loose to change you life meaningfully.