So I was looking at charts, trying to convince myself everything is still on track. This is what I saw:
On this date in the 2021 bull year we were at $48,000.
We rose above $50,000 in early September to then put in a low of $40,000 in late September.
By late October we were over $65,000 and obviously hit the cycle high of $69,000 in early November.
That’s a 43% price rise from late September 2021 dip to cycle high of $69,000.
I don’t see why in any way, shape or form that the top is in at $124,000 in August.
A 43% price rise from here by early November would put us at $157,000.
It's quite possible that the market will continue to be boring for the coming weeks. But to think that we would top out around 157K is somewhat conservative.
With the recent Powell speak and the "2% inflation target" change, cuts coming and all other catalysts lining up. I feel that we should probably see a higher number.
Might not be as explosive as previous run ups, maybe more of a prolonged bullrun. Not sure we should count on a major crash of 60-80% either. Selling in Nov/Dec with intentions of buying back lower next year seems quite risky..
Time will tell. Will be an interesting time ahead. HODL ON.