That is a pretty old chart/table - with the newest of the data therein being May 17, 2021


From my perspective, your relatively more bearish proposition is bettable.

1st never is a long time, so if we were to bet, we could put a deadline on it, let's say the end  of 2030 - which would potentially capture the top of this cycle and the top of the next cycle, to the extent that framing these matters in terms of cycles is making any sense.

Sure, you could be correct, yet the reason I consider it bettable is because I am fairly confident to consider that the odds to be less than 50% that you are correct, and you are seeming to put a pretty great assertion on your side (never).. like you should be giving me odds, but that wouldn't be fair for me to take advantage of your likely wrong perspective, like that.  hahahahahahahaha

If you are correct then it seems that some of the underlying presumptions of our tool (I know I created the substantive categories) would be so off in terms of their never, ever, ever happening... .. and with the tool I was attempting to outline actionable presumptions that were in categories that could end up happening. .not that they would happen, but if they did, then any of us, using the tool, could have a plan for dealing with such categories of BTC spot price ranges relative to the 200-WMA.

So yeah the category of actionable ranges are taken from fairly recent historical data with the maximum on the downside being BTC prices up to 35% below the 200-WMA (which was close to happening on November 22, 2022), and on the upside of the BTC spot price getting to 1,400% above the 200-WMA, which happened on December 17, 2017.

Directionally, you have to be correct that the extremes are likely to get taken out, especially some of the outrageousness in the upside, yet I am not sure if we can bank upon the disappearance of overexuberance, even when a variety of tools exist to bet against bitcoin  and even with the rules of large numbers.    

Of course, so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY gone up, yet that is not guaranteed to continue to take place, so there likely is going to end up being a period of time in which the 200-WMA starts to go down in such a way that it is noticeable over an extended period of time, like maybe a month or 2... Yet, I don't know when that kind of downward trend of the 200-WMA might play out, even though I doubt that such a downward trend would be the death of bitcoin, even though it would represent a fairly lengthy period of BTC price below the 200-WMA... and even BTC spot prices having had spent a decently large amount of time below the 200-WMA between June 2022 and October 2023, the annualize upward movement of the 200-WMA still continued to be greater than 19% during that time. I was watching the daily reports of the 200-WMA at the worst of those late 2022 into early 2022 times, and even on the worst days the 200-WMA still was going up around at least $8 to $9 per day (200-WMA at the time around $24k)... so positive on the daily and positive at least 12% on an annualized basis.. even if we take the very worst days of only going up $8 per day, then $8 X 365 gets us $2,920 annualized, which would be 12.17% if we were to divide that by $24k.  

In some sense, extended downward scenarios for the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA seem more likely and sustainable as compared to extended upside scenarios, such as if we were to try to get to 1,400% again.  Yet even 300% to 400% from today's 200-WMA would merely be prices of $155k to $207k, which surely seem within reach even if yeah the 200-WMA is currently going up right around $40 per day, so it is not like we would shoot up to get within that range in a day or two, it might take a few days or even a few weeks.

The lower number of 300% is surely bettable, yet I also don't see any reason to remove 1,400% from the tool, even though you might want to consider that the tool should be more granular and therefore more realistic in terms of numbers that you believe can get hit, such as less than 300%.. hahahahaha..  There is hardly any interesting action needing to be contemplated based on price if we might be considering ONLY such low levels of exuberance in bitcoin's price future.  Sure the tool can still be helpful in terms of just attempting to figure out ways to value our portfolios and then to potentially draw upon our holdings based on such valuations of our BTC holdings.

Yet, from your seeming perspective of upside scenarios no longer being in the cards, pour one out for bitcoin.


By the way, I get the sense that guys who are overly conservative in their abilities to see bitcoin upside scenarios are likely going to be lured into either not accumulating enough bitcoin (since they take for granted our current prices) and/or selling too many bitcoin too soon, since they perceive the top being in too early. So, yeah, a lot of normies have made such mistakes in bitcoin historically in terms of their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately accumulate bitcoin and/or their inclinations to sell way too many bitcoin too soon.

Part of the reason for the tool is to help normies to be able to prepare for upside scenarios that may or may not happen so that they are perhaps more able to regulate their own level of selling bitcoin, to the extent that they are more inclined to sell rather than to hold  I sometimes hear or read from other bitcoiners who seem to be way smarter than me, and they are claiming to be bitcoin maxis, yet at the same time, they are trading the fuck out of their bitcoin, and surely I have difficulties understanding how they ever get ahead in their ongoing deploying of those kinds of systems, and it seems that an overwhelming majority of them would have had been way better off to have had been emphasizing on accumulating and holding rather than fucking around with trading... especially if we might look at their performance over a couple of cycles or longer.

I think that we are going to continue to have similar patterns into the future where guys are trying to trade bitcoin, selling too much bitcoin too soon and also failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin when they should be.  

At the same time, it is my perspective that if guys get to an place of overaccumulation, then they have options and they can establish a perpetual budget, and even work within such budget to either continue to build or just to live off of the budget it they do not necessarily need to work off the budget.   I suppose that my presumption of a perpetual budget does have some built in assumptions about the 200-WMA continuing to go up at at least the rate of withdrawal (slightly greater in order to be perpetual and also at least enough to give reasonable cost of living increases each year, for example 7%.. yet each of us is still responsible for figuring out the extent to which we have reached over accumulation status and are able to withdraw at a sustainable rate and if the BTC price / 200WMA is not going up enough in order to sustain our withdrawal rate then we either have to lower our withdrawal rate or figure out ways to build up our bitcoin stash size in order to get it at a sustainable level within our intended budget..