Maybe you are not analyzing the twitter post with any depth, yet are you aligning with those kinds of thoughts that the bull market and/or blow off top is not quite here yet?

During these kinds of correction periods there can be questions regarding both how long will this correction last and also whether the bullrun is over, and surely many folks would like to frontrun identifying when the bullmarket is over, yet it seems that those kinds of guys are tending to sell too much too soon, and even if they have any bitcoin left when the top arrives, they might not necessarily have enough to sell by that point if they had already sold several times on the way up.

For example a guy who had been holding since $50k or so might feel better to sell most if not all of his BTC at around $150k, even if the BTC price ends up going up into the $190k territory because he may well might feel that he caught the top close enough.. even if he does not have any coins (or hardly any that he would be willing to sell) by the time the BTC price reaches $190k-ish.


That is what makes the 200-WMA such a great indicator.. since it is quite commonly used, but at the same time the BTC price has historically spent around 75% of the time or more at least 30% or greater above it. 

So when we are close to it or even below it (which we were for most of the period between June 2022 until October 2023), those were surely trying times, but also retrospectively (and perhaps prospectively) they ended being quite great times for really going to town in our buying of bitcoin, even though it can also be painful to be ongoingly, persistently and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin during such seemingly negative bitcoin price times.

A sad thing was that we could have had been screaming our heads off for guys to buy during that period, and they don't listen.

I had mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating.  I have a relative who I had been bringing up bitcoin to him from time to time since 2014-ish.. and even on a few occasions I had gotten quite vociferous about how great bitcoin is - even paid him in bitcoin a few times.. but he just could not hold through tougher times, and I am pretty sure that it was right around July-ish of 2022 that i mentioned to him that it could well be such a great time to buy bitcoin right now since the price has been around $20k and even below $20k, and he specifically said that it could be the top.  I responded that "yes, it could be," yet both of us knew that I was not backing away from my statement and both of us knew that I was not going to attempt to go hardball in any kind of sales pitch.  I made my statement, and he made his statement, and sure he was correct for right around 6-ish months since the BTC price did not really go into any kind of meaningful recovery until January 2023. and furthermore the BTC price even dropped further on the FTX fiasco in November/December 2022... so he was largely correct that $19k/$20k was not exactly a bottom.. but really, he was ONLY right for a half of a year or so, and that half of a year or even year and a half (around that time) would have had been great for relatively well people (no coiners or low coiners) to really have had gone to town with their bitcoin accumulation based on my having had been telling them for around 8-ish years prior to that conversation.

I sometimes like to think of a fairly well-off guy like that, and he is probably already a millionaire in regards to his various assets that he owns (which doesn't take much these days), yet his quasi-liquid networth and his quasi-liquid assets might ONLY add up to being around $800k or so. I am not exactly sure, but he has always had a pretty decent income and he has some family assets too.

So if a guy like that might have had decided some kind of an aggressive investment into bitcoin in early 2022 based on the early 2022 price corrections, maybe he might have had started to get into bitcoin around February 2022 when bitcoin prices were in the upper $30ks.. and he just decided that fuck it, he was going to take something like $200k from his various assets and dollar cost average into bitcoin over the next 2-ish years and then see where it takes him and perhaps at that point to stop investing into bitcoin, yet taking 2 years to establish his stake of putting $200k into bitcoin. 

So how would have $200k-ish invested over 2 years starting February 2022 worked out?

Investing $2k per week between February 1, 2022 until February 1, 2024 would have resulted in $210k invested, and about 8 BTC.  Surely not a bad place to be, if he had wanted to just stop investing in bitcoin at that time and then just let his bitcoin investment ride for a few years after creating his initial stake.. perhaps a cycle or two before maybe considering whether to tap into the coins or to do anything else, but at least he had put a decent stake into bitcoin and it was what he was willing to do, but also perhaps that he continued to keep his other investments going too.

Right now 8 BTC would have a current spot price value of $882k, and a 200-WMA value of $415k (which would only generate around a $41.5k per year income).  Even though he may well be able to be happy with an $80k per year income, he would like the combination of all of his assets to be able to support a $160k per year income. and maybe just having his bitcoin at that level might be a good target, too..

He can look at my most recent fuck you status chart and see that 8 BTC would likely start to be able to support a perpetual withdrawal rate of $160k per year starting in about 2029 ... which may well be a reasonable target for him to get to fuck you status.. 4-ish years from now.. especially if he combines his bitcoin with his other investments and/or income sources.

Another thing that this guy could have had done in early 2024 is to continue to invest into bitcoin at a lower rate until he gets closer to his goals, but if he largely considers himself to have enough in bitcoin, then he might want to either buttress other investments or just to let his bitcoin and other investments ride at that time and to use his money in other ways... which surely there are always various demands on how a  guy might use his money.  Maybe this guy already had an income that was well over $100k per year an that he had been largely been able to take $1k per week from his regular income and he had some other places that he was getting the other $1k per week, but after two years of putting $2k per week into bitcoin, he had enough, and he felt that he had largely frontloaded his bitcoin investment.


You are right.  It is probably a best practice to try to stay focused on bitcoin rather than experimenting (or gambling with various shitcoins), and sure if a guy might be getting paid within his signature campaign for some coin that is supposed to mostly be pegged to the dollar, then he can largely consider that money in terms of holding in the dollar and perhaps figuring out reasonable times that he might ongoingly convert into bitcoin whether weekly or some other basis.. to the extent that he is largely still accumulating bitcoin.

I only was participating in a signature campaign for a couple of years, and I found it to be too much of a burden, even though surely through the years I could have had stacked a decent amount of bitcoin (especially being a legendary member)... but still just seems like a hassle to me, which largely relates to my sense that I don't really need any more bitcoin.... but sure, of course, we might assume that a lot of guys are still accumulating bitcoin and signature campaigns are generally decent ways to accumulate bitcoin.. but then at the same time, if they are paying in some dollar-pegged coin, there still may be questions about the extent to which to keep any of that in dollars or to pretty much convert most of it, if not all of it, to bitcoin in a relatively expedited way.

I did a quickie search for Stake in the signature campaign thread, but I could not see what they pay, but if they were to pay something like $100 per week in USDC, then surely every week that could be converted into bitcoin, or otherwise, maybe a portion of it, such as $80 converted into bitcoin and then the other $20 per week allocated towaards buying on dips or some other method that would not necessarily involve buying right away.